Trump Returns to the White House: Can Bitcoin "Surge" to $100,000?

Trump Returns to the White House: Can Bitcoin "Surge" to $100,000?On November 6th, Beijing time, Donald Trump was elected President of the United States with over 270 electoral votes, securing his return to the White House. Alongside Trump's "surging" vote count, the price of Bitcoin also experienced a "remarkable" rise, increasing by 8

Trump Returns to the White House: Can Bitcoin "Surge" to $100,000?

On November 6th, Beijing time, Donald Trump was elected President of the United States with over 270 electoral votes, securing his return to the White House. Alongside Trump's "surging" vote count, the price of Bitcoin also experienced a "remarkable" rise, increasing by 8.11% on the day, reaching a peak of $75,400.

Trump's "friendly" stance towards cryptocurrencies, particularly his promise to "make America the global center of crypto and bitcoin superpower," has injected strong confidence into the Bitcoin market. Back in June, Trump posted on his social media platform TruthSocial, expressing his desire for "all remaining Bitcoin to be produced in the United States." He further proposed using Bitcoin to repay the US's staggering $35 trillion debt in August. Now, he has once again affirmed that if he returns to the White House, he will ensure the government maintains 100% of its Bitcoin holdings and designates it as a strategic reserve asset for the US.

Trump's "Bitcoin declaration" has sparked heated discussions in the market. Many analysts believe his election will fuel further price increases for Bitcoin. Geoff Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that Trump's re-election will push Bitcoin up by approximately 4% upon the announcement of the results, followed by an additional 10% rise within a few days, potentially reaching $125,000 by the end of the year.

PlanB, creator of the Bitcoin S2F model, is even more optimistic. He utilizes his model to predict Bitcoin's price movements in the coming months. PlanB anticipates Bitcoin prices to reach $100,000 in November, and Trump's victory in December paving the way for the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. With the influx of ETF funds, the changing market supply and demand dynamics will further drive Bitcoin prices to $150,000. He even predicts a surge to $200,000 at the beginning of 2025.

Argentine economist Alex Kruger also expresses optimism about Bitcoin's recent trajectory, albeit with a more conservative outlook. He expects a 55% probability of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 by the end of the year.

Beyond Trump's election, another crucial factor influencing Bitcoin's trajectory is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision on November 8th (Friday) at 03:00 Beijing time. Industry experts suggest that if the Fed continues to cut interest rates, increasing liquidity, more funds may flow into assets like Bitcoin, providing support to Bitcoin prices. Conversely, if interest rates rise, increasing the cost of capital, it could lead to a decline in Bitcoin prices.

According to CME "Fed Watch," the probability of the Fed lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in November is 98%. The odds of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points by December are pegged at 17.1%, with a probability of 82.7% for a cumulative cut of 50 basis points.

Looking at historical data, Bitcoin has consistently enjoyed a strong rally following every US presidential election. Will this trend continue? How will Trump's "Bitcoin declaration" and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision impact Bitcoin's price movement? These questions will remain at the forefront of discussions in the Bitcoin market for the coming months.

While Trump is scheduled to formally assume office in 2025, the impact of the election results on cryptocurrencies is already underway. Combined with the changing macroeconomic environment following the interest rate meeting, Bitcoin's price movements are shaping up to be highly intriguing. Will it reach $100,000 by the end of the year? Jiemian News will continue to monitor the situation.