Trump's Return to the White House: Bitcoin to Surge to $90,000? Bernstein: A New Chapter of "Trump Trade"

Trump's Return to the White House: Bitcoin to Surge to $90,000? Bernstein: A New Chapter of "Trump Trade"Analysts at Bernstein believe that if former President Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, Bitcoin will experience a new surge, potentially reaching $90,000 by the fourth quarter of this year, representing a 58% increase from its current price of around $57,000. This would mark a new chapter in the "Trump trade" and signifies the cryptocurrency market's high expectations for policies under a Trump administration

Trump's Return to the White House: Bitcoin to Surge to $90,000? Bernstein: A New Chapter of "Trump Trade"

Analysts at Bernstein believe that if former President Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, Bitcoin will experience a new surge, potentially reaching $90,000 by the fourth quarter of this year, representing a 58% increase from its current price of around $57,000. This would mark a new chapter in the "Trump trade" and signifies the cryptocurrency market's high expectations for policies under a Trump administration.

The initial "Trump trade" refers to the significant rise in the US stock market, bond yields, and the US dollar following Trump's 2016 election victory. Bernstein argues that Trump's re-election would bring new positive developments to the cryptocurrency market, fueled by greater institutional investor acceptance and improved regulatory environment.

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, in a recent report, stated that the Trump administration's support for cryptocurrencies, particularly Trump's positive stance towards digital assets, would create a more welcoming regulatory landscape for the industry.

"Cryptocurrency is a rare case where the outcome of an election can determine the fate of the industry," Chhugani said.

In recent years, Trump's attitude towards cryptocurrencies has undergone a marked shift, with him consistently expressing support for the industry. He spoke at the largest annual cryptocurrency conference, the 2024 Bitcoin Conference, stating that if he were to return to the White House, he would include Bitcoin in the US strategic reserve assets. "If Bitcoin is going to the moon, I want America to be the one leading the way."

Furthermore, Trump has brought up cryptocurrency policy in almost every one of his speeches. In late August, he posted a video on the social media platform X to his 90 million followers, declaring his plan to make the US "the cryptocurrency capital of the world."

Chhugani believes Trump's positive outlook on cryptocurrencies would bring the following benefits to the industry:

1. Positive Regulatory Environment Yet to Be Priced In:

Chhugani explained that due to significant regulatory challenges, Decentralized Finance (DeFi) has not seen institutions and banks participate in building blockchain-based financial products.

2. Removing Policy Risks for Financial Institutions and Bank Participation:

A positive regulatory environment would eliminate policy risks for financial institutions and bank participation, thereby removing obstacles for digital assets to compete with traditional assets for institutional capital flows.

3. Attracting Institutional Investors to the Cryptocurrency Market:

Trump's administration's pro-cryptocurrency policies would attract more institutional investors to the cryptocurrency market, boosting demand for Bitcoin and driving its price upwards.

4. Enhancing Bitcoin's Attractiveness as a Strategic Reserve Asset:

Trump has publicly stated his intention to include Bitcoin in the US strategic reserve assets if he returned to the White House. This move would elevate Bitcoin's international standing and establish it as a global digital asset.

As a result, Bernstein argues that if Trump wins the 2024 election, it would create significant upside potential for Bitcoin. Their analysts predict that Bitcoin's price could surge to $90,000 by the fourth quarter of this year.

However, some analysts remain skeptical of Bernstein's prediction. They believe that Bitcoin's price rise needs more supporting factors, such as a stable global macroeconomic environment, innovation in the technology sector, and a well-developed regulatory framework.

Regardless of whether Trump wins the 2024 election, his presence will have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market. Investors need to closely monitor the Trump administration's policy direction and adjust their investment strategies based on market fluctuations.