Huawei's Tri-Folding Mate XT Sales Forecast Doubles: Can the Market Hype Sustain?

Huawei's Tri-Folding Mate XT Sales Forecast Doubles: Can the Market Hype Sustain?Renowned consumer electronics analyst Ming-Chi Kuo today published a note stating that his latest supply chain survey revealed a doubling of his sales forecast for Huawei's tri-folding Mate XT phone in 2024, raising it from 500,000 units to 1 million units, citing strong market demand. According to data from Huawei's official website, the number of pre-orders for the Mate XT has reached 6

Huawei's Tri-Folding Mate XT Sales Forecast Doubles: Can the Market Hype Sustain?

Renowned consumer electronics analyst Ming-Chi Kuo today published a note stating that his latest supply chain survey revealed a doubling of his sales forecast for Huawei's tri-folding Mate XT phone in 2024, raising it from 500,000 units to 1 million units, citing strong market demand. According to data from Huawei's official website, the number of pre-orders for the Mate XT has reached 6.622 million.

While the Mate XT's sales forecast has been revised upwards, Kuo also emphasized the need to monitor whether market demand will continue after the launch on September 20. He noted that past Huawei flagship models have experienced a rapid decline in demand after release.

Despite the current hype surrounding the Mate XT, the global foldable phone market still faces challenges overall. According to the latest foldable phone shipment report from Counterpoint Research, global foldable phone shipments increased by 48% year-on-year in the second quarter. However, Kuo pointed out that the market forecast for global foldable phone shipments in 2024 has been revised downwards from 30 million units to 15 million units. He attributed this revision to:

1. Software Compatibility Issues: Current traditional dual-foldable phones generally have an aspect ratio of 1:1 or 4:3 when unfolded, presenting challenges in software compatibility. The Huawei Mate XT offers three display modes: single-screen, dual-screen, and tri-screen. Its tri-screen mode has an aspect ratio of approximately 16:9, close to the parameters of most tablets on the market, making software adaptation relatively easier. However, overall, the difficulty of designing software to accommodate large screens remains a major hurdle for the development of the foldable phone market.

2. Low Profit Margins: The high development costs of foldable phones lead to low profit margins, affecting brand manufacturers' willingness to develop and sell foldable phones. Industry consensus agrees that foldable phones currently face challenges in terms of technical difficulty and high development costs. For example, the waterdrop hinge widely adopted by domestic companies effectively mitigates crease issues, but its high-priced metal materials also increase manufacturing costs.

3. Insufficient Durability: The poor durability of foldable screens is the primary concern for other brands that have yet to follow Huawei in releasing a tri-folding phone.

Kuo further analyzed that Huawei's choice to adopt a tri-folding design, ahead of its competitors, boils down to its comparatively lagging processor performance, leaving limited options for differentiation.

A research report released by CICC Securities on September 11 stated that the mass production of tri-foldable phones is expected to continue to drive Huawei's smartphone shipment share, particularly in the high-end segment. In terms of the industry chain, the report believes that the launch of the Mate XT will benefit domestic companies in the display, camera, baseband, and RF chip sectors, such as leading domestic CMOS sensor company, Weil Technology, leading domestic RF chip company, Zhuosheng Micro, and leading domestic panel manufacturer, BOE Technology.

The sustainability of the Mate XT's hype ultimately depends on its ability to address market concerns and deliver an experience that sufficiently attracts consumers. The foldable phone market will become even more competitive in the future, and the key to ultimate victory will be the ability to break through technological bottlenecks and find the right market positioning.