The Enigma of iPhone 16 Sales: Can AI Be Apple's Savior?
The Enigma of iPhone 16 Sales: Can AI Be Apple's Savior?On September 10th, Apple unveiled the iPhone 16, touted as their "first phone built for AI." However, the phone has received mixed reviews since its release
The Enigma of iPhone 16 Sales: Can AI Be Apple's Savior?
On September 10th, Apple unveiled the iPhone 16, touted as their "first phone built for AI." However, the phone has received mixed reviews since its release. Its AI service, AppleIntelligence, has yet to be launched alongside the iPhone 16, and the newly added camera button has been deemed "useless" by many. Nevertheless, the A18 chip and 8GB RAM, standard across all models, have earned the iPhone 16 some positive feedback. After all, the previous generation iPhone 15/Plus featured the A16 chip released in 2022.
Just as the iPhone 16's reviews are mixed, the market is divided on its sales prospects. Since its official launch on September 20th, some market research firms have claimed AI has boosted iPhone 16 sales significantly, while others argue the phone lacks innovation and has underperformed. With a week on the market, how is the iPhone 16 performing?
Significant Market Divergence: iPhone 16 Sales Remain a Mystery
Firstly, renowned Apple insider and TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo holds a pessimistic view of the iPhone 16's market performance. On September 16th, he projected the iPhone 16 series' opening weekend sales to be approximately 37 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% compared to the iPhone 15 series. He specifically stated that the 16 Pro series sales were below expectations.
According to Kuo's data, the iPhone 16 sold around 7.3 million units, representing a 10% increase; the iPhone 16 Plus sold approximately 2.6 million units, a 48% increase; the iPhone 16 Pro sold around 9.8 million units, a 27% decrease; and the iPhone 16 Pro Max sold around 17.1 million units, a 16% decrease.
The projected data reveals that the iPhone 16 continues to follow the trend of "the higher the price, the better the sales." The iPhone 16 Pro Max, with its highest price tag, remains the most popular model this year, contributing approximately 46% of pre-orders. The iPhone 16 Pro follows closely, accounting for approximately 26% of sales, with the two Pro models combined making up approximately 72% of sales.
However, both Pro models have witnessed significant declines compared to their predecessors, with the magnitude of these drops overshadowing the growth seen in the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus. For instance, the iPhone 16 Plus experienced a 48% year-on-year increase, but its sales reached only 2.6 million units, less than a fraction of the Pro Max's figures.
In fact, back in August, before the iPhone 16 was released, Kuo had already expressed skepticism about its market performance. He predicted that iPhone shipments would experience a significant decline of around 38% in 2024, dropping from 310 million units in 2023 to around 200 million units. He attributed this decline primarily to Apple's lack of innovation in its iPhone products over recent years, leading to reduced consumer anticipation for new releases.
Another set of data points to the iPhone 16's potentially sluggish market performance. On September 26th, a report from Morgan Stanley highlighted a noticeable decrease in the average lead time for the iPhone 16 series. As of September 24th, the average delivery time for the iPhone 16 in the North American market stood at 15.2 days, significantly lower than the iPhone 15's average lead time of 25.7 days during the same period last year. In international markets, the average delivery time for the iPhone 16 also showed a downward trend, reaching 16.3 days, markedly lower than the iPhone 15's 28.5 days.
Morgan Stanley commented, "When we aggregate all iPhone lead time data, the average lead time for the iPhone 16 from pre-order to today is 14 days, the shortest in the past five years. This means the iPhone 16 series is likely not performing as well as expected."
However, UBS analysts offered a different perspective on the Morgan Stanley
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