Xiaomi MIXFlip's Comeback: Reshaping the Foldable Market, Who Will Be the Next Winner?

Xiaomi MIXFlip's Comeback: Reshaping the Foldable Market, Who Will Be the Next Winner?As a new star in the mobile phone industry, foldable phones have been widely accepted by consumers despite their generally higher prices compared to traditional flagships. Market research agency IDC's sales data shows that in the third quarter of this year, the total sales of foldable phones in China reached 2

Xiaomi MIXFlip's Comeback: Reshaping the Foldable Market, Who Will Be the Next Winner?

As a new star in the mobile phone industry, foldable phones have been widely accepted by consumers despite their generally higher prices compared to traditional flagships. Market research agency IDC's sales data shows that in the third quarter of this year, the total sales of foldable phones in China reached 2.232 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 13.2%. Compared to the same period last year, the scale of China's foldable phone market still maintains a sales growth rate of over 10%.

However, a closer look at the market shares of major mobile phone manufacturers reveals significant changes in sales. Some brands have witnessed a sharp decline in foldable phone sales, while others have seen their sales increase several times over. Following closely behind brands like Huawei, vivo, Honor, OPPO, and Samsung, Xiaomi has finally achieved a sales explosion.

Since the dawn of the foldable era with the launch of the Huawei MateX and Samsung Galaxy Fold in 2019, more than five years have passed, and the technology has matured significantly. Changes in sales among manufacturers undeniably reflect product strength. Companies experiencing sales increases and declines can likely find their own problems and solutions through observing these trends.

Xiaomi's Comeback, Scaling the Heights

Comparing domestic foldable phone sales data from the second and third quarters of this year reveals that only two manufacturers have achieved stable sales: Huawei and Honor. As the leader in domestic mobile phone production, Huawei only faces competition from Apple in the high-end domestic phone market. However, Apple hasn't launched a foldable phone yet, so the competitive pressure facing the MateX series is far less than that of the Mate and Pura series.

The Honor MagicV series can be seen as a more affordable alternative to the MateX series, offering a comparatively lower price with top-tier configurations and an equally impressive experience. Additionally, while Samsung's domestic sales haven't been stellar, its flagship phones still have a loyal following, resulting in a larger foldable phone market share compared to some domestic manufacturers.

Among the other three mainstream domestic mobile phone manufacturers, the vivo XFold3 series was released at the end of March this year, with its peak sales occurring in the second quarter, surpassing Honor to secure the second spot in domestic foldable phone sales. However, the vivo XFold3 series seems to have lost some momentum, dropping to fifth place in sales during the third quarter.

As for OPPO, several of its products have been exceptionally well-crafted, but they all share a common issue: processors lagging behind the competition by a generation. In recent years, the OPPO FindN series has consistently chosen to release in the fourth quarter, coinciding with the launch of new flagship chips from Qualcomm Snapdragon and MediaTek Dimensity. However, they've consistently opted for processors from the previous generation, leaving a feeling of being powerful yet incomplete. Thankfully, not much information has been revealed about OPPO's new generation of foldable phones, and they are likely to be released next year, ensuring they don't miss out on the Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 or Dimensity 9400 chips. With this shortcoming addressed, OPPO's foldable phones have the potential for a sales explosion.

Among manufacturers who have introduced foldable phones, the most surprising change undoubtedly belongs to Xiaomi. It witnessed a surge from a market share of just 1.4% in the second quarter to 17.2% in the third quarter, marking a 1128.6% increase in sales compared to the previous quarter. Notably, the last time Xiaomi cracked the top three in domestic foldable phone sales was in the second quarter of 2021, when its first-generation foldable phone, the MIXFold, was released. At that time, OPPO, vivo, and Honor had yet to unveil their first foldable phones.

In the flagship phone market, Xiaomi's digital series and Redmi K series have gradually established a solid foothold. However, in the foldable phone market, Xiaomi, which entered the market earlier than OPPO, vivo, and Honor, has consistently trailed behind in sales. Despite the element of timing, with the MIXFold4 and MIXFlip both launched in July, placing the third quarter within Xiaomi's peak sales period for foldable phones, this surge into the top three after a three-year hiatus highlights the right direction taken by the MIXFold4 and MIXFlip. Xiaomi's significant market share growth has naturally impacted the sales of other brands' products. OPPO and vivo both experienced a decline in foldable phone sales during the third quarter. Faced with Xiaomi's relentless pressure, OPPO and vivo need to ponder why Xiaomi has succeeded and how they can catch up.

MIXFlip Turns the Tide, Xiaomi Sets New Foldable Records

Xiaomi's foldable phone sales growth surpassing 11 times year-on-year can be attributed primarily not to the feature-packed MIXFold4, but rather to the small foldable phone, the MIXFlip. Statistics reveal that approximately two months after its launch, the MIXFlip had garnered over 200,000 activations. This suggests that throughout the third quarter, the MIXFlip likely accounted for around 60% of Xiaomi's foldable phone sales. As of today, the MIXFlip ranks first on both the daily and cumulative charts of the small foldable phone speed competition on JD.com's Double 11 event, proving that the MIXFlip hasn't faded into obscurity after a quarter of sales, but rather possesses significant staying power. In contrast, the MIXFold4, with its sales ranking only seventh among large foldable phones, hasn't performed exceptionally well.

Consumer preference for small foldable phones is understandable. Large foldables still suffer from issues like weight and price. Small foldable phones, however, cater to the consumer desire to experience the benefits of a foldable phone without these drawbacks. This is precisely why Huawei has not only launched the Pocket for the high-end market but has also introduced the more affordable novaFlip under its nova series, adopting a dual small foldable strategy. However, examining the entire small foldable market reveals a shortage of products worth buying.

While the OPPO FindN3Flip captivates with its design, it falls short with the Dimensity 9200+ chip, lagging behind by a whole generation. The vivo XFlip only launched in 2023 with the Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1, while Honor's MagicVFlip, released in April of this year, also runs on the Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1. Among leading manufacturers, the only small foldable phone without any shortcomings is the MIXFlip.

Outside of the leading manufacturers, the moto razr50 Ultra stands as a formidable competitor to the MIXFlip, boasting comparable configurations at a significantly lower price. While the Honor MagicVFlip might be slightly inferior in terms of specs, it compensates with its budget-friendly price, starting at just 4999 yuan. Both the razr50 and MagicVFlip have secured spots in the top three on the daily and cumulative charts of JD.com's Double 11 small foldable speed competition, further validating the allure of price for consumers.

Besides its price advantage, Xiaomi has extensively optimized the MIXFlip's external screen, enabling functionalities like video streaming, phone calls, food ordering, flight information, and reading ebooks. Furthermore, Xiaomi offers a diverse range of optional components, making the small foldable phone truly practical, user-friendly, and not just a pretty gadget. OPPO and vivo's actions have essentially relinquished the small foldable market. Xiaomi's MIXFlip, with its more compelling configuration and price, coupled with a user-friendly external screen, has perfectly absorbed this market segment.

The arrival of the MIXFlip has swept away years of gloom for Xiaomi in the foldable phone market, enabling them to close the gap with Honor and Huawei. Driven by the success of the MIXFlip, Xiaomi's domestic foldable phone sales are poised to overtake Honor's in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, other manufacturers like OPPO and vivo need to seek market share through innovation.

The Foldable Wave Rises, Can Xiaomi's Model Be Replicated?

IDC predicts that in 2024, China's foldable phone market shipments will reach 10.68 million units, a year-on-year growth of 52.4%. By 2028, shipments are projected to soar beyond 17 million units, with a five-year compound annual growth rate of 19.8%. Undoubtedly, the foldable phone market will maintain an exceptionally high growth rate, and small foldable phones are emerging as a crucial component of the overall foldable phone market.

The success of the MIXFlip demonstrates that usability, practicality, and affordability are key to winning the small foldable phone market. Cost-effectiveness is a long-standing strength of Xiaomi, and system optimization has been a forte ever since MIUI transitioned to the Pengpai OS. However, for leading giants, these two advantages of Xiaomi can easily be replicated.

The Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 and Dimensity 9400 have already been launched, and manufacturers are currently occupied with the release and sales of their new flagship phones, with relatively fewer leaks surrounding foldable phones. It's expected that starting in March next year, various manufacturers will gradually release new-generation foldable flagship models, including updates to small foldable phones and potentially even the introduction of tri-fold phones.

The enhanced OPPO FindN series, a revitalized vivo XFold series