Bitcoin to Break All-Time High? CCData: Still Potential This Year

Bitcoin to Break All-Time High? CCData: Still Potential This YearCCData released a research report on Tuesday stating that Bitcoin has yet to reach the peak of its current appreciation cycle and is expected to surpass its all-time high this year. The report analyzes Bitcoin's historical price trends and concludes that it still has the potential to rise further

Bitcoin to Break All-Time High? CCData: Still Potential This Year

CCData released a research report on Tuesday stating that Bitcoin has yet to reach the peak of its current appreciation cycle and is expected to surpass its all-time high this year. The report analyzes Bitcoin's historical price trends and concludes that it still has the potential to rise further.

Data shows that Bitcoin hit an all-time high of over $73,700 in March this year but has since been fluctuating between roughly $59,000 and $72,000. The record high in March was primarily attributed to the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in January. These funds have attracted approximately $14.41 billion in net inflows, injecting new vitality into the Bitcoin market. Spot Bitcoin ETFs allow investors to purchase products that track Bitcoin's price without having to own the underlying cryptocurrency, which has helped legitimize this asset class and attract more institutional investors.

Bitcoin's "cycle" refers to the period when the digital currency reaches a new high, followed by a decline into a bear market or "crypto winter." Since Bitcoin's inception, this cycle has been completed three times and typically follows a similar pattern revolving around the "Bitcoin halving" event. The halving event refers to the halving of miners' rewards, reducing the supply of Bitcoin in the market. Typically, the halving event occurs a few months before Bitcoin reaches an all-time high within a cycle. However, the current cycle is different, as Bitcoin reached its latest all-time high before the halving due to the optimism generated by spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Many question whether Bitcoin has already reached the peak of its current cycle, but CCData's report believes that Bitcoin can still reach new highs based on its historical price trend analysis. The report states that the halving event always marks the beginning of a price expansion period, which can last anywhere from 366 to 548 days, and each halving cycle is longer than the previous one due to the maturity of the asset class and reduced volatility.

The last Bitcoin halving occurred on April 19 this year, so the price expansion period is not over yet. CCData also observed that in previous cycles, centralized exchange trading activity declined almost two months after the halving event, which seems reflected in the current cycle as well. This suggests that the current cycle could extend into 2025.

While the impact of institutional investors in the industry has changed previous trends, data and previous trends suggest that any sideways price movement is temporary. CCData predicts that there will be another breakout above the previous all-time high before the end of this year.

Another important historical data point supporting CCData's view is the short period during which Bitcoin's price rallies. For example, during the 2012 cycle, 91.4% of Bitcoin's gains from halving to its all-time high were made within the four months leading up to the cycle's peak. In the 2016 and 2020 cycles, the gains in the four months before their respective all-time highs accounted for 78.8% and 71.5% of the total gains. This parabolic expansion has not yet occurred in the current cycle.

Despite the historical patterns, some analysts point out that there are no signs of a new high trigger yet. Thomas Perfumo, Head of Strategy at cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, states that historically, market cycles have peaked 12 to 18 months after a Bitcoin halving, with the last halving occurring in April this year. We haven't seen volatility reach previous peaks, nor have we witnessed the rapid succession of new highs, with 10 to 20 new highs in 30 days, which was typically a feature of previous market cycle peaks.

In conclusion, CCData's report, based on historical data and current market trends, believes that Bitcoin still has the potential to rise further and is expected to surpass its all-time high this year. However, the report also acknowledges that the impact of institutional investor participation in the current cycle has changed previous trends and reminds investors of market risks and urges them to avoid blindly chasing the upward trend.