Three-Fold Foldable Smartphones: The "Killer App" for Huawei's HarmonyOS NEXT?

Three-Fold Foldable Smartphones: The "Killer App" for Huawei's HarmonyOS NEXT?Earlier, a photo of Huawei's Managing Director, Richard Yu, holding a new foldable phone while on a flight circulated on social media. According to the poster, he was holding Huawei's upcoming first three-fold foldable smartphone

Three-Fold Foldable Smartphones: The "Killer App" for Huawei's HarmonyOS NEXT?

Earlier, a photo of Huawei's Managing Director, Richard Yu, holding a new foldable phone while on a flight circulated on social media. According to the poster, he was holding Huawei's upcoming first three-fold foldable smartphone. During the handover ceremony for the first batch of AITO S9 owners, Yu confirmed that the new phone would be officially unveiled in September this year. This is not the first time Huawei has hinted at releasing a three-fold foldable phone. As early as mid-last year, media outlets reported that Huawei was aiming to create a new device with a multi-modal and multi-interaction design, based on the HarmonyOS full ecosystem. It now seems likely that the rumored "mysterious terminal" was in fact this three-fold foldable phone.

Besides Huawei, in a post-event interview following Honor's new product launch on July 12th, Honor Terminal CEO Zhao Ming responded to rumors about whether Honor would launch a three-fold foldable phone. He stated that Honor currently possesses the technology to launch such a device, but whether they actually do so is ultimately a business decision. It's clear that leading foldable phone manufacturers are now equipped with the technical capabilities to create foldable products with even more diverse forms, but the real question is whether consumers will embrace them.

For Huawei, launching the first three-fold foldable phone isn't just about flexing its muscles it's also about laying the groundwork for the arrival of HarmonyOS NEXT.

Three-Fold Foldable: True Tablet-Phone Fusion?

Since the advent of foldable phones, their form and practical value have been hotly debated. Some consumers argue that foldable phones often come with drawbacks like "fragility" and "bulkiness," making it difficult to strike a balance between phone and tablet functionality. However, leading foldable phone brands like Huawei and Honor have been continuously improving the durability of their foldable phones, reducing overall weight and thickness, bringing them closer to the carrying experience of regular straight-screen phones. For example, Honor's recently released MagicV3 foldable phone boasts a thickness of just 9.2mm, even thinner and lighter than its imaging flagship.

Having addressed the issues of durability and thickness, the foundation is now in place for devices with more varied folding forms. Based on leaked photos, Huawei's first three-fold foldable phone utilizes a "Z" shape folding design, featuring an inward fold, an outward fold, and dual hinges. In the photo of Yu holding the phone in its unfolded state, a noticeable thick protrusion can be seen on the right side of the device, likely a protective case for the stylus. Previous reports revealed that Huawei's three-fold foldable phone is expected to have a screen size of around 10 inches when unfolded, while the outer screen in the folded state will be approximately 6-7 inches, with an aspect ratio similar to the MateX5's outer screen.

Huawei's main intention in creating a three-fold foldable phone isn't, as we might think, to "create demand," but rather to utilize it as a feature of the public release of HarmonyOS NEXT. It's common knowledge that HarmonyOS-powered phones, tablets, and other devices have unique advantages, such as Huawei's unique handwriting note-taking experience and multi-screen collaboration. The three-fold foldable, with its double-folding design, can effectively combine the strengths of both phones and tablets, integrating with HarmonyOS NEXT's powerful system capabilities to allow users to complete multiple tasks using a single device. According to @ChaPingDi on Weibo, Huawei's three-fold foldable phone might also support HarmonyOS PC-level apps, which could be the phone's biggest "killer app."

The first three-fold foldable phone is expected to carry a hefty price tag, estimated to be between 15,000 and 20,000 yuan, with limited initial stock. It seems that Huawei's launch will spark another "buying frenzy."

The Folding Phone Tech War Enters the Second Half

Since 2019, foldable phones have become a battleground for phone brands, with major players like Samsung, Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, vivo, OPPO, and Motorola all releasing their own foldable phones. Among them, Samsung, Huawei, and Honor have all reigned supreme in different periods or regions, becoming the leading foldable phone brands.

The industry giant Samsung began laying the groundwork for foldable devices in various forms two years ago. For example, at the 2024 MWC exhibition, Samsung Display showcased several prototypes, including three-fold foldable, foldable scroll screens, and vertical Z-fold designs. However, there hasn't been any concrete information about consumer-grade products based on these prototypes, leaving us curious about how the panel giant will implement these different folding forms.

When it comes to technological breakthroughs, foldable phone manufacturers face significant challenges. Panel selection is a key factor. Currently, there are two main materials used for foldable phone panels: UTG and CPI. Simply put, UTG is glass, while CPI is a plastic film. For single-fold foldable phones, panel material selection isn't as strict, as both UTG and CPI have their advantages. For example, CPI's flexibility, favorable folding radius, and dispersed crease distribution enable optimization for a visually smoother inner screen. Huawei and Honor are prominent examples of this. However, CPI suffers from lower scratch resistance compared to UTG, a factor that might not be noticeable in single-fold devices but could be problematic for three-fold foldable phones, where screens directly touch each other. UTG might be a better choice in such cases. It's understood that Huawei's three-fold foldable will be the first to utilize UTG glass from Shengkai Technology, enhancing screen protection.

Another crucial aspect is the hinge mechanism. Single-fold devices only require a single hinge, and even with a single high-risk mechanical physical structure, failures are frequent. Three-fold foldables need a dual-hinge design, further increasing the risk of damage. Huawei and Honor are both strong contenders in foldable phone hinge technology. Huawei has its proprietary dual-rotating waterdrop hinge, while Honor has upgraded to a titanium hinge in its latest MagicV3. One focuses on seamless and imperceptible folding, while the other emphasizes robustness and durability. Regardless of the approach, this is a natural advantage for devices requiring multiple folds.

Finally, there's the issue of software adaptation. Previous articles have stated that the biggest obstacle during the development of Huawei's three-fold foldable was app display proportion adaptation. For instance, adjusting the different app proportions for the 10-inch unfolded state and the 7-inch folded state poses a significant challenge for manufacturers.

No matter how you look at it, developing a three-fold foldable phone, from hardware to software, is considerably more difficult than building a regular foldable phone. This explains why, despite numerous multi-form foldable solutions being publicly showcased by upstream suppliers, there have been few reports of phone brands actively pursuing development. Huawei's three-fold foldable is confirmed to launch in September, and both Honor and Samsung have their own complete underlying technology support. This could be a turning point for foldable phone brands, potentially mirroring the "great reshuffle" of the smartphone market, where only six major manufacturers remain.

Three-Fold Ignites the Market: Adding Fuel to the Foldable Phone Fire?

Foldable phones have been tasked with a mission since their inception: offering a large screen while remaining portable, enhancing entertainment, business, and image editing experiences. Unlike traditional single-fold designs, three-fold designs offer more complex form changes, providing a larger screen while maintaining a relatively portable form factor.

According to IDC research, global foldable phone shipments reached approximately 18 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of over 50%. Foldable phone market share rose from less than 1% in 2022 to over 1.5% in 2023, still a relatively small fraction but growing significantly faster than the traditional smartphone market. The arrival of three-fold foldables could completely reshape the foldable phone landscape during this period of rapid growth.

On one hand, it showcases technological barriers between brands. IDC points out that companies with independent R&D capabilities and strong supply chain control will hold an advantage in this technological race. Those lacking core technologies like screen panels, hinges, thin battery technology, or overly reliant on external supply will face greater challenges.

On the other hand, it establishes brand image. The high price will make the three-fold design a luxury for the few, but it also creates a new high-end image for the brand, helping it stand out in the fierce market competition. For instance, before the launch of foldable phones, the ultra-high-end market above 8,000 yuan was dominated by Huawei, Samsung, and Apple. The arrival of foldable phones allowed most other phone manufacturers to reach a higher price point for the first time, facilitating their own high-end aspirations.

Objectively, three-fold foldable phones are still a very new and niche product. Even with the backing of strong brands like Huawei and Honor, it's unlikely to attract widespread consumer interest initially. However, long-term, multi-form foldable devices are undoubtedly the future, as most consumers seek richer and more diverse usage experiences. So, the question is, would you choose to support Huawei's three-fold foldable phone with its near-20,000 yuan price tag?