Apple's Fall Event Nears: iPhone 16's Incremental Upgrades and AI Struggles to Save the Day?

Apple's Fall Event Nears: iPhone 16's Incremental Upgrades and AI Struggles to Save the Day?On the late night of August 26th, Apple sent out invitations to users worldwide, officially announcing the date for its 2024 Fall event: September 10th at 1:00 AM Beijing Time. Judging by the invitation content, Apple AI and screen upgrades (highlighted moments) seem to be the core themes of this event

Apple's Fall Event Nears: iPhone 16's Incremental Upgrades and AI Struggles to Save the Day?

On the late night of August 26th, Apple sent out invitations to users worldwide, officially announcing the date for its 2024 Fall event: September 10th at 1:00 AM Beijing Time. Judging by the invitation content, Apple AI and screen upgrades (highlighted moments) seem to be the core themes of this event. Multiple product lines, including iPhone, MacBook, AirPods, and Apple Watch, are expected to receive updates. This year's Apple Fall event might be a watershed moment: iPhone market share is likely to further decline, and the uncertainty surrounding Apple's ability to retain its "top dog" position in the AI era increases. On a brand level, Apple is also poised to step down from its pedestal.

iPhone 16 Series Offers Minimal Upgrades, Marking the Smallest Leap in History

Several overseas tech bloggers have already issued "warnings" about the new products, stating that this iPhone generation is merely transitional and will not bring groundbreaking updates. Since the iPhone 14 series, Apple's pace of progress has been sluggish. Failing to introduce significant upgrades this time could result in a loss of users.

The highly anticipated iPhone 15 series, upon its release, couldn't escape the fate of breaking on its first day. The core reason for this lies in the fading effectiveness of Apple's "shell-swapping magic." When consumers are no longer captivated by so-called new materials and technologies, the iPhone 15 series naturally loses its inherent advantage. Based on the latest leaks, the iPhone 16 series not only fails to address these concerns but actually represents Apple's most underwhelming generation yet.

In terms of hardware, the standard iPhone 16/Plus simply upgrades the SoC to A18 and the rear camera to a dual 48-megapixel setup, switching from diagonal to vertical arrangement. The remaining features remain largely unchanged from the previous generation. The iPhone 16 Pro replaces the 3X upright telephoto lens with a 5x periscope lens, aligning with the iPhone 16 Pro Max. The size of the phone also increases, and battery capacity sees a slight bump.

Mark Gurman, a Bloomberg chief reporter, believes that Apple's marketing focus for the iPhone 16 series this year is on the dedicated camera button. It enables quick camera launching while serving as a shutter and video recording start/stop button. Simply put, this camera button is a hardware solution that has already been discarded by the Android camp.

The Android Camp is Ready to Strike, Aggressively Eroding Apple's Market Share

Android competitors are preparing to pounce and seize iPhone users while Apple is busy strategizing. Digital Chat Station has revealed on social media that OPPO will incorporate more magnetic accessory support in its next-generation Find series flagship phones. This includes magnetic chargers, phone cases, card holders, and more. Combining this with earlier leaks mentioning ColorOS 15's addition of "fruitful" features like AirDrop and Live Photos, it seems OPPO is determined to snatch users from iPhone.

Previously, the Redmi K50 and Redmi K50 Pro, predecessors of these models, attracted a large number of iPhone users due to their unique "small-screen flagship" positioning. The standard version of the Redmi K series, according to official data, has achieved cumulative sales exceeding 2 million units. In the second half of this year, the OPPO Find X8 and Vivo X200 series will both enter the market with the "small-screen flagship" positioning, effectively eliminating iPhone's advantage in this segment.

Despite being a "small-screen flagship," the iPhone 16 Pro, while adopting a periscope telephoto lens for the first time, falls short with its smaller sensor area and lower pixel count compared to current large-sensor, high-pixel periscope solutions. Of course, Apple's approach towards the "Pro" series is to position it as a more professional imaging tool, moving away from the needs of mainstream consumers. This strategy could push Apple further away from the mainstream market.

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who closely follows Apple, mentions that Apple wants to highlight Apple Intelligent as the core selling point for the iPhone 16 series. However, the policy surrounding Apple AI remains unclear in countries outside the US, particularly mainland China. Therefore, the only marketing highlight for the iPhone 16 series in mainland China seems to be the unimpressive camera button.

It's clear that Apple's slowdown in innovation is reflected not only in the conservative hardware upgrades but also in the lagging feature development. For instance, the iPhone 16 series only adds a camera button and increases the size of the Pro series models. However, these solutions can only be considered "counter-trend" designs going against the current market trends. Can Apple still drive new design trends? It seems challenging.

Objectively, the significant user loss experienced by iPhone is primarily attributed to Apple's inaction. Users, as consumers, naturally choose products that best suit their needs. In the past, Apple's approach relied on system features and ecosystem integration to bind users. However, with Android brands incorporating new features to rival iOS, Apple's advantage may fade in the next flagship battle.

Is Apple's "Ecosystem Binding" Trick No Longer Effective?

As a long-time Apple ecosystem user, I was once impressed by its seamless workflow. Features like AirDrop and cloud syncing are classic examples of multi-device collaboration within Apple's ecosystem. At the 2023 Vivo Developer Conference, Vivo unveiled the "Vivo Office Suite," a cross-platform synchronization application. This suite supports installation on mobile, Windows, and Mac platforms, enabling file transfers, cross-platform control, and even cross-platform search.

The introduction of this suite marks a historic breakthrough in breaking Apple's "ecosystem binding." It replaces the cross-device advantage previously exclusive to Mac and iOS with a simple application. Vivo's approach is astute. They understand that many iPhone users remain loyal to the iOS camp due to the desire for connectivity with MacBook. Indeed, MacBook is often the only choice for most office workers. Therefore, Vivo took the lead in breaking the ecosystem barrier, helping users with this particular struggle to "escape." This strategy contributed to Vivo's record-breaking achievement of 19 consecutive weeks at the top of the domestic market in the first half of 2024, attracting a considerable number of new users who switched from iPhone.

Besides Vivo, OPPO is also targeting a distinctive iPhone featureLive Photo. Live Photo was exclusively launched by Apple with the iPhone 6S in 2015. Its principle involves recording a 3-second video at 45 frames per second while taking a photo, which automatically plays as the user browses the photo in the gallery. This type of photo is also known as "dynamic photo" or "Live Photo."

Dynamic photos were already a standard feature in the early Android camp, with brands like HTC, Samsung, and Xiaomi among the first to offer the ability to capture them. However, iPhone not only allows capturing but also sharing and posting, which is its advantage. OPPO introduced dynamic photo sharing on the Xiaohongshu platform with the Reno 12 series. With the arrival of ColorOS 15, this functionality will be made available to most OPPO devices.

In addition to dynamic photos, OPPO plans to support features like AirDrop, magnetic charging, Dynamic Island, and Always-On Display in ColorOS 15. The objective is clear: to make the transition from iPhone to the OPPO ecosystem seamless.

In reality, these exclusive features might not be the core functionality of the iPhone. However, they are undoubtedly some of the most well-received features in the market. Replicating these features in the Android camp is not difficult, but patent and platform adaptation considerations hinder development. Now, with manufacturers collaborating with social platforms to advance feature adaptation, the advantage of the iPhone becomes less pronounced.

The iPhone vs. Android Showdown Has Begun, Will the Winner Be Decided?

Historically, the iPhone 16 series would launch in mid-September and become available in late September. Coincidentally, Android flagship phones are accelerating their product release schedules this year. Leaked information suggests that some manufacturers will introduce their latest flagship series as early as October. Unexpectedly, the weakest iPhone generation will face off against the strongest Android generation.

The first batch of Android flagships for this year are likely to include the Xiaomi Redmi K50 series, iQOO 13, OnePlus 13, OPPO Find X8 series, and Vivo X200 series. Vivo and OPPO's standard versions, powered by the MediaTek Dimensity 9400, are expected to launch earlier. On the other hand, the larger or ultra-large versions with the Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 mobile platform are anticipated to be released in November. This year's situation is rather dramatic: Apple's iPhone 16 series, considered the "weakest generation," will be up against the Android camp's "strongest generation" of flagship devices. For consumers, this competition undoubtedly increases the difficulty and variety of choices. However, it also highlights the pressure Apple faces in terms of innovation.

Looking at the overall market landscape, Apple seems to be confronting an unprecedented challenge. If Apple fails to deliver sufficiently exciting improvements in the iPhone 16 series, this year's showdown could see more high-end users shift to the Android camp.