The Tri-Fold Phone: The Next Big Thing, Who Will Be First to Enter the Game?

The Tri-Fold Phone: The Next Big Thing, Who Will Be First to Enter the Game?Priced at 19,999 yuan and above, the first tri-fold phone, Huawei MateXT, has become a new financial artifact, with its price on secondhand platforms reaching 30,000 yuan. After Huawei's successful foray, other brands are naturally eager to join the fray

The Tri-Fold Phone: The Next Big Thing, Who Will Be First to Enter the Game?

Priced at 19,999 yuan and above, the first tri-fold phone, Huawei MateXT, has become a new financial artifact, with its price on secondhand platforms reaching 30,000 yuan. After Huawei's successful foray, other brands are naturally eager to join the fray. Recently, digital blogger @DigitalChatStation revealed that OVM is steadily advancing with its dual-fold screen phone and is observing the tri-fold phone market. Industry predictions indicate that Honor will be the first to follow Huawei's lead and launch a tri-fold phone.

Since Samsung and Huawei introduced the first folding screen phones in 2019, the sales and market share of folding phones have skyrocketed. Among global mainstream phone manufacturers, Apple is the only one that hasn't joined the bandwagon. However, Apple must acknowledge the power of folding screen phones, which has propelled Android manufacturers to success in the high-end market. It's safe to say that focusing on folding screen phones has become a shortcut for global top phone manufacturers to advance towards the high-end market.

Large Foldable and Small Foldable Perform Beyond Expectations, Industry Advances to Tri-Fold

Before 2020, the global high-end smartphone market had only three brands available: Apple, Huawei, and Samsung. Other phone manufacturers released flagship models, but their performance in the high-end market was underwhelming. For phone manufacturers to make inroads into the high-end market, both brand value and product capabilities are crucial. However, with the dominance of the big three, breaking through without major breakthroughs posed a significant challenge. The arrival of large foldable (dual-fold) phones provided phone manufacturers with an opportunity to make a foray into the high-end market.

Currently, the traditional flagship phones of various manufacturers have become increasingly similar in terms of design and features. However, folding screen phones still have room for growth in screen ratios, app compatibility, and other aspects. IDC predicts that China will maintain its position as the world's largest folding screen phone market for an extended period. The projected cumulative shipment volume for folding screen phones this year is 10.68 million units, representing a staggering 52.4% year-over-year growth. By 2027, the shipment volume of folding screen phones in China is expected to reach 17 million units, almost half of Apple's domestic phone sales in 2023.

At the IFA 2024 (International Consumer Electronics Show) in Berlin, Germany, Honor CEO Zhao Ming held a group interview, and the Lei Technology reporting team was present and gathered firsthand information. Zhao Ming told us that if folding screen phones had been like they are today five years ago, the market would have been flooded with them. The MagicV3 has achieved the thickness and weight of a straight-screen phone, along with 2.5-meter waterproof and drop resistance capabilities, satisfying consumers' desire for a straight-screen phone while offering a super-large screen experience.

Zhao Ming's statement reveals the progress of folding screen phones in recent years. Large foldable phones have broken free from the "thick, bulky, and heavy" stereotype. While maintaining long battery life, their weight and thickness have improved significantly, and their imaging capabilities have continued to advance, catching up with straight-screen flagships. Simultaneously, phone manufacturers are pursuing innovations in form factor, introducing small foldable phones that fold vertically after the large foldable phones.

The advantage of large foldable phones is that they resemble regular phones in everyday use and can be unfolded to serve as a smaller tablet. Small foldable phones emphasize "sophistication," boasting a compact and premium look when folded. @DigitalChatStation noted that Xiaomi's small foldable phone sales have exceeded expectations, and phone manufacturers will place greater emphasis on small foldable products in the future. Notably, Xiaomi's folding screen phone sales are considered relatively poor, failing to make it into the top five in China in the first half of this year. However, even the small foldable phones have become a hit, indicating the popularity of such products.

However, neither large foldable (dual-fold) nor small foldable phones can provide a truly comparable experience to large screen tablets. The tri-fold phone MateXT unfolds to a size of 10.2 inches, catching up with the MatePad. Huawei's optimization and compatibility ensure a tablet-like experience when unfolded.

Beyond Huawei, some global phone manufacturers have already recognized the limitations of dual-fold phones and have unveiled plans for tri-fold phones. It won't be long before we witness the second manufacturer to launch a tri-fold phone, but who will be the first to take the leap remains a question mark.

The Next Entrant: Honor or Transsion?

So far, two companies have publicly announced their plans for tri-fold phones. The first is Transsion, dubbed the "King of Africa," whose products are primarily sold overseas. Transsion is renowned for its high sales in the overseas market, even surpassing OPPO in terms of sales in the second quarter of this year, placing it fifth globally. Previously, Transsion primarily focused on entry-level smartphones. However, with its continuous sales growth, Transsion is attempting to break into the high-end market and recently showcased its tri-fold concept phone, "Phantom Ultimate 2." Reports suggest that this product is expected to be launched at the Mobile World Congress (MWC 2025) in March next year.

However, @DigitalChatStation suggests that the Phantom Ultimate 2 is merely a concept phone with a low probability of mass production. After all, tri-fold phones are expensive, and if sales are weak, they could result in losses. Transsion's influence in the high-end market is limited, and considering the risks involved, it may not rush to launch a tri-fold phone.

The second manufacturer likely to launch a tri-fold phone is Honor, previously mentioned. At IFA 2024, Zhao Ming shared some insights about the tri-fold phone with Lei Technology and other media. He emphasized that all Honor phone designs are finalized a year in advance, eliminating the possibility of copying Huawei. Earlier, Zhao Ming had revealed that Honor's tri-fold phone technology was complete. Now, his statement to Lei Technology about the phone's design being determined a year earlier indicates that Honor's first tri-fold phone is nearing its launch. Equipped with flagship chipsets like Qualcomm Snapdragon 8Gen4 and MediaTek Dimensity 9400, the launch is expected sometime in October at the earliest, while the Honor tri-fold phone could launch slightly later, potentially towards the end of this year or in the first quarter of next year.

In terms of technical prowess, Honor, a veteran and leading phone manufacturer in China, undoubtedly possesses the necessary foundation. Regarding brand recognition, Honor secured second place in the domestic folding screen phone market in the first half of 2024 with a 23.3% market share, trailing only Huawei. It surpassed vivo and OPPO and significantly outperformed Samsung and other brands. Sales figures demonstrate Honor's high consumer acceptance in the folding screen phone market, laying a solid market foundation for its potential future tri-fold phone.

A New Windfall, Entry Requires Caution

No phone manufacturer is content with solely developing in the mid-to-low-end market, but breaking into the high-end market is notoriously difficult. Folding screens present an opportunity. However, at this stage, the folding screen technology of major manufacturers is relatively mature, and it's challenging to differentiate the user experience. Tri-fold phones could become the next big thing. However, seizing this tri-fold opportunity and gaining a larger share of the high-end market is still no easy feat.

At the Huawei See New Extraordinary Brand Ceremony and HarmonyOS Zhixing New Product Launch, Yu Chengdong announced the MateXT price and quipped, "The cost is too high." Indeed, despite years of research and development of dual-fold phones, which has provided manufacturers with valuable technical experience, tri-fold phones currently face challenges in terms of maturity in the manufacturing process and supply chain. Controlling costs in the short term will likely be difficult. With its brand influence and pricing power, Huawei can afford to set the starting price of the MateXT at 19,999 yuan. Therefore, other phone manufacturers must resolve the cost issue before launching tri-fold models.

Initially, other phone manufacturers can introduce some experimental products to test market acceptance and consumer response.

Secondly, thanks to technological advancements and upgrades, the weight of dual-fold phones has been effectively controlled, making them no longer brick-like. The Honor MagicV3, for example, weighs only 226g, lighter than some straight-screen flagships. However, adding another screen could potentially increase the weight to around 300g, impacting the feel during daily use.

Lastly, to fully realize the potential of tri-fold phones, perfect app compatibility with the tri-fold mode is essential. App adaptation sounds simple but is actually complex. As of 2023, the domestic app market has monitored approximately 2.65 million apps. Not all developers are willing to cooperate with phone manufacturers to proactively complete adaptation. In the realm of dual-fold phones, Huawei's app compatibility performance stands out as almost unrivaled.

Tri-fold phones are likely to become the next big thing in the phone industry. However, manufacturers wishing to leverage tri-fold phones to make