Can scalpers still make money on the iPhone 16 series?

Can scalpers still make money on the iPhone 16 series?"The iPhone 16 series is totally uninspired and not worth buying," many people say, but their words don't match their actions. As soon as pre-orders for the iPhone 16 series opened on September 13th, Apple's website was overwhelmed, and numerous consumers were forced to wait several minutes on a "black screen" before even reaching the purchasing page

Can scalpers still make money on the iPhone 16 series?

"The iPhone 16 series is totally uninspired and not worth buying," many people say, but their words don't match their actions. As soon as pre-orders for the iPhone 16 series opened on September 13th, Apple's website was overwhelmed, and numerous consumers were forced to wait several minutes on a "black screen" before even reaching the purchasing page. The website crashing and Apple becoming a trending topic on Weibo once again demonstrated the brand's popularity and influence.

Apple employees must be working tirelessly to deliver the iPhone 16 series to eager customers as quickly as possible. However, their efforts may be overshadowed by the relentless scalpers. Every year, when Apple releases a new iPhone model, scalpers buy up devices through various channels and resell them at inflated prices to consumers desperate to get their hands on the latest model. This year is no different, and the iPhone 16 series is proving to be a hot commodity for scalpers.

The iPhone is once again being sold at exorbitant prices by scalpers

Recently, the Huawei Mate XT, released around the same time as the iPhone, became a target for scalpers, who bought it in large numbers and resold it at thousands or even tens of thousands of yuan higher on second-hand platforms. However, unlike the Mate XT, which is known for its complex manufacturing process, high cost, and limited production, the iPhone 16 series is a mainstream flagship model for Apple, so the markup won't be as exorbitant as the Mate XT.

Currently, many sellers on second-hand platforms are selling their iPhone 16 series order slots yes, "selling order slots" with a markup of 200-500 yuan. Some sellers are charging as much as 500-1000 yuan for the order transfer fee, without any room for negotiation, demonstrating their confidence.

Overall, the price markup for the iPhone 16 series varies depending on the model. The iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus typically require an additional 200-350 yuan, while the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max require an extra 300-500 yuan. One user (presumably a professional scalper) appears to have secured a large number of iPhone 16 orders, offering the iPhone 16 Pro for 300 yuan more and the iPhone 16 Pro Max for 500 yuan more, and requiring a transaction at the Apple Store on September 20th.

Last year, during the launch of the iPhone 15 series, many scalpers were buying up iPhones from consumers at inflated prices and reselling them. The iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max, in particular, saw scalper acquisition prices increase by 500-700 yuan. It's not surprising that the iPhone 16 order transfer fees are mostly between 300-500 yuan, as the iPhone 16 series, while still selling well, is less popular than previous generations, resulting in a smaller price markup.

According to statistics from Canalys, Apple's domestic phone sales fell out of the top five in the second quarter of this year. Last year, Apple's phone sales were still ranked third in the domestic market. These sales figures indicate that Apple's influence in the domestic market is waning. However, Leikeji observed that the performance on the first day of release often does not strongly correlate with a phone's overall sales. Long-term sales depend on product strength and marketing, and the first-day situation primarily depends on supply and demand. By limiting the number of units available, a "demand exceeding supply" phenomenon can be artificially created, contributing to the "sold out in seconds" phenomenon often seen with many Android flagships.

Can scalpers make money on the iPhone 16 series this time around?

It's hard to say. Last year, on the day the iPhone 15 series was released, many scalpers lost money due to the rapid decline in product prices. Those who couldn't sell their iPhones immediately had to lower their prices continuously. In 2024, scalpers seem to have forgotten their past losses and are already speculating on the iPhone 16 series, displaying a gambler's mentality.

For Apple fans, is it worth it to get the iPhone 16 series on release day? If you can't get one through official channels, should you buy one from a scalper?

Paying extra for being an early adopter of a new iPhone "Possible, but not necessary"?

Last year at this time, when the iPhone 15 series went on sale, Leikeji visited an Apple Store in Guangzhou and witnessed customers selling their phones to scalpers immediately after picking them up. The iPhone 15 Pro was the most frequently sold model, with the 128GB version being ignored, and the base iPhone 15 model being completely overlooked.

Even after a morning of selling, the scalpers were still willing to pay an extra 1,000 yuan for the iPhone 15 Pro/15 Pro Max. Some scalpers even offered trade-in services, "upgrading" the experience for consumers.

This year, the iPhone 16 series comes standard with Apple Intelligence (which won't be available in the Chinese market until 2025), 45W fast charging, a Dynamic Island across all models, and improvements in photography and performance. However, the price of the four iPhone 16 series models (16/16 Plus/16 Pro/16 Pro Max) remains unchanged from the iPhone 15 series. Therefore, the iPhone 16 series offers more features for the same price, potentially creating room for a markup.

Is it necessary for consumers to buy the iPhone 16 at a higher price? It largely depends on Apple's official product inventory situation.

Earlier this month, before the iPhone 16 series was released, Wall Street News learned from the supply chain that the iPhone 16 series had a stock of over 88 million units, indicating that the supply of iPhone 16 series devices is quite ample.

Apple's website shows that orders for the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro are currently estimated to be shipped within 10 business days roughly four to five days after the official release date. The iPhone 16 Plus, with its only advantage being a larger screen, is not as popular. It also suffers from drawbacks like being cumbersome to hold and being more expensive, leading to fewer consumers interested in purchasing it. This is reflected in the estimated shipping time of only 8 business days for this model.

The iPhone 16 Pro Max remains the most sought-after model. Currently, orders are estimated to take 2-3 weeks to ship, likely due to its higher price and smaller inventory. The iPhone 16 Pro Max still has some price markup potential. Based on past experience, Leikeji predicts that on September 20th, the delivery date, buyers may still need to pay an extra 300-1,000 yuan to purchase the phone from scalpers.

Other than the iPhone 16 Pro Max, the other three models in the iPhone 16 series have relatively short waiting times for orders placed on the official website. Additionally, referring to last year's iPhone 15 series launch, where some models were available for in-store purchase, it's highly likely that the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus will also be available in stores this year.

Third-party channels will have a more abundant supply this year compared to official stores. For example, the food ordering platform Ele.me, which helped consumers purchase the iPhone 15 last year, will again support pre-orders and simultaneous sales of the iPhone 16 series. Full payments can be made in advance, and the iPhone 16/16 Plus is currently available in stock. On the first day of the new phone's release (September 20th), Ele.me customers can receive their new phones within as little as half an hour, and they also offer installment payments, sealed packaging, and dedicated delivery services.

Overall, compared to the iPhone 15 series, the iPhone 16 series has significantly shorter lead times for the first-day delivery. This is partly due to Apple's ample stock and partly due to the decline in iPhone's popularity in China. With the support of numerous channels, it will be much easier for consumers to purchase the iPhone 16 series on release day. Therefore, Leikeji believes that paying extra for the iPhone 16/16 Plus/16 Pro only makes sense if you absolutely need to experience it on the launch day (like self-media personnel, media outlets, bloggers, influencers, etc.). Otherwise, it's simply not worth paying extra.

Is the iPhone market becoming saturated, and will phone scalpers eventually disappear altogether?

On the day the iPhone 15 series was released, the iPhone 15/15 Plus was already being sold on second-hand platforms for less than its launch price within two hours. The iPhone 15 Pro/15 Pro Max managed to hold its price for a while before dropping below the launch price but it didn't last long. Considering this year'