iPhone 16 Series Initial Pre-Orders May Fall Short of Expectations, Analyst Guo Ming-chi: Apple AI Commercialization Could Be a Turning Point

iPhone 16 Series Initial Pre-Orders May Fall Short of Expectations, Analyst Guo Ming-chi: Apple AI Commercialization Could Be a Turning PointWhile the Max versions of the iPhone 16 series are proving to be in high demand, the other three versions are currently experiencing relatively stable sales. This phenomenon suggests that the initial excitement for the iPhone 16 series this year may be lower than that for the iPhone 15 series last year

iPhone 16 Series Initial Pre-Orders May Fall Short of Expectations, Analyst Guo Ming-chi: Apple AI Commercialization Could Be a Turning Point

While the Max versions of the iPhone 16 series are proving to be in high demand, the other three versions are currently experiencing relatively stable sales. This phenomenon suggests that the initial excitement for the iPhone 16 series this year may be lower than that for the iPhone 15 series last year. Renowned analyst Guo Ming-chi has also shared his insights, predicting that the first weekend pre-order volume for the iPhone 16 series could reach 37 million units, representing a potential 12.7% decrease compared to the first weekend sales of the iPhone 15 series last year. He attributes the lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pro to the current pre-order data.

Guo Ming-chi emphasizes that the production plans for the iPhone 16 series' supply chain will not undergo significant changes in the short term, remaining aligned with Apple's previous estimations. He believes that the commercialization of Apple Intelligence (AI) in the fourth quarter could potentially improve the iPhone 16 series' shipment volume. Looking forward, Apple might adopt a more aggressive product strategy in 2025 to rejuvenate market demand for iPhone devices.

Beyond Guo Ming-chi's analysis, industry analysts also attribute the lower-than-expected iPhone 16 series sales to the following two primary factors:

1. Lower-than-expected Apple AI rollout timeline: During this year's Apple Developers Conference, Apple did not explicitly announce that AI would be commercially available alongside the iPhone 16 series. The official announcement regarding AI commercialization came only after the release of the iPhone 16 series, falling significantly short of consumer expectations. This led many consumers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, opting to hold off on their purchase until Apple AI officially launches.

2. Intense competition in the Chinese market: The AI features of the iPhone 16 series will not become available in the Chinese market until 2025, leaving their actual performance uncertain. However, in October this year, Chinese brand flagship phones will experience a surge in releases, with models potentially matching or even surpassing the iPhone 16 series in overall performance, while also offering a more competitive price. As a result, the iPhone 16 series faces significant competitive pressure in the Chinese market.

Currently, the hype surrounding the iPhone 16 series pales in comparison to previous years, with even relatively limited discussion about the product. Many consumers believe that now is not the ideal time to purchase the iPhone 16 series, recommending a wait of about a month to observe market performance.

Overall, the iPhone 16 series' initial pre-order volume has fallen short of expectations, but the commercialization of Apple AI could potentially bring about a turnaround. The future market performance of the iPhone 16 series remains to be seen.