Will Bitcoin Break $73,800 Before US Election? Standard Chartered Predicts

Will Bitcoin Break $73,800 Before US Election? Standard Chartered PredictsBitcoin bulls have been waiting for another all-time high for over six months, and Standard Chartered says it could finally arrive in the coming weeks. In a new research note, Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, estimates that Bitcoin could reach $73,800 before the US presidential election in November, a 12 percent increase from current levels

Will Bitcoin Break $73,800 Before US Election? Standard Chartered Predicts

Bitcoin bulls have been waiting for another all-time high for over six months, and Standard Chartered says it could finally arrive in the coming weeks. In a new research note, Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, estimates that Bitcoin could reach $73,800 before the US presidential election in November, a 12 percent increase from current levels.

Kendrick cites the correlation between the price of Bitcoin and MicroStrategy's price-to-book ratio (P/B ratio) as support for this prediction. MicroStrategy is known for its massive Bitcoin holdings, which recently reached 252,000 coins.

As shown in the chart below, throughout 2024, MicroStrategy's P/B ratio (blue line) has traded relatively in sync with the price of Bitcoin (green line), followed by an outburst. Kendrick says two fundamental factors driving this premium could push Bitcoin higher, eventually narrowing the gap between the two.

The first factor is the news last month that BNY Mellon, a New York-based bank, received an exemption from SAB121, a piece of legislation that requires dealers to list the cryptocurrencies they hold on their balance sheets. This regulatory easing is generally seen as a positive for Bitcoin.

Secondly, the SAB121 exemption ties in with MicroStrategy's push to become a "Bitcoin bank," offering Bitcoin capital market tools in the future. Kendrick expects future exemptions could allow the company to generate revenue by lending out Bitcoin. The connection for me is that as the broader digital asset ecosystem becomes more legitimate/accessible, MicroStrategys P/B multiple is going to rise, Kendrick said.

In Kendrick's view, the outcome of the US election is secondary to these bullish forces, although a win for either Trump or Harris would be positive for the cryptocurrency industry. As we head into the US elections the broader digital asset ecosystem is indeed becoming increasingly mainstream, he wrote.

Kendrick has previously said that both presidential candidates would be bullish for cryptocurrencies in the long term, but that a Trump win would be the more favorable of the two outcomes. If the Republican candidate returns to the White House, Kendrick estimates that Bitcoin could surge to $125,000 by the end of 2024.

Chart of MicroStrategy's P/B Ratio vs. Bitcoin Price:

[Chart image]

Summary:

Standard Chartered's latest research suggests that Bitcoin is poised to break its all-time high in the coming weeks, reaching $73,800. This is driven primarily by MicroStrategy's plans to become a "Bitcoin bank" and the increasing legitimacy of the broader digital asset ecosystem. While the US election outcome has a relatively small impact on Bitcoin, a Trump win could potentially further propel Bitcoin prices higher.