Trump Victory Expectations Rise, Bitcoin Breaks $71,000, Trump-Related Stocks Soar

Trump Victory Expectations Rise, Bitcoin Breaks $71,000, Trump-Related Stocks SoarWith just a week left until the US election, while polls show a close race between Trump and Harris, odds at major betting sites are leaning towards Trump winning. This anticipation has triggered significant market volatility: Bitcoin has surpassed $71,000 per coin, Dogecoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies have surged; Trump-related stocks have also rallied collectively

Trump Victory Expectations Rise, Bitcoin Breaks $71,000, Trump-Related Stocks Soar

With just a week left until the US election, while polls show a close race between Trump and Harris, odds at major betting sites are leaning towards Trump winning. This anticipation has triggered significant market volatility: Bitcoin has surpassed $71,000 per coin, Dogecoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies have surged; Trump-related stocks have also rallied collectively. Among them, the Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.US), owned by Trump, soared 21.59% and has surged 310% since late September. This phenomenon has been dubbed the "Trump Trade" making a comeback.

Cryptocurrencies Rally, Bitcoin Breaks $71,000/Coin

On October 29, the cryptocurrency market, led by Bitcoin, witnessed a sudden and significant surge. Bitcoin peaked at $71,500/coin, a new high since June 7th, and Ethereum, Dogecoin, BNB, Cardano, etc., followed suit. As of this writing, Bitcoin has risen over 5%, Dogecoin has climbed over 18%, and Ethereum has increased by nearly 5% within 24 hours.

Analysts point to multiple factors contributing to this cryptocurrency surge, with Trump's poll lead over Harris being considered the biggest driver. Additionally, tech giant Microsoft, with a market capitalization exceeding $3 trillion, is considering investing in Bitcoin. Furthermore, BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, recently purchased 34,000 Bitcoins, worth approximately $2.4 billion, bringing their Bitcoin holdings to a market value exceeding 200 billion yuan. These developments have injected strong confidence into the cryptocurrency market.

Trump-Related Stocks Surge Strong, DJT Stock Soars 310%

On Monday, eastern time, the Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.US), owned by Trump, saw its share price skyrocket 21.59%, drawing widespread market attention. In recent weeks, driven by increasing market optimism about Trump's return to the White House, DJT stock has been steadily rising. Compared to its intraday low of $11.75 per share on September 24th, the stock has surged 310% so far. Trump holds nearly 57% of Trump Media, which, at Monday's intraday high, translates to a total value of about $5.4 billion.

Besides DJT, other meme stocks associated with Trump have also been boosted: conservative video network Rumble's share price climbed 12% at one point during Monday's trading. Meanwhile, software company Phunware, which was involved in Trump's 2020 campaign, also saw its stock price jump 15% at the opening bell on Monday.

Betting Sites Odds Favor Trump Victory

Although polls remain close between the two presidential candidates in the 2024 US presidential election, market sentiment has shifted in favour of Republican candidate Donald Trump since October, triggering the "Trump Trade" comeback. The US dollar, Trump-related stocks, and Bitcoin have all witnessed a strong rally.

The "Trump Trade" refers to market movements surrounding Trump's potential victory. Investors are betting that if Trump wins, he will implement policies that loosen financial regulation, lower taxes, raise immigration thresholds, and impose tariffs on imported products, thereby benefiting the US dollar and pushing inflation higher. For example, tariffs on imported goods, in theory, could reduce the number of imported goods, often leading to currency depreciation in the exporting country, thereby strengthening the US dollar.

According to the RealClearPolitics, a US benchmark comprehensive poll website, as of October 28th, Trump holds a 0.2 percentage point lead over Harris, with respective support rates of 48.6% and 48.4%. As of October 23rd, Harris had a 49.1% to 48.5% lead over Trump. Despite polls showing a close race between Trump and Harris, odds at major betting sites are all leaning towards Trump winning in the coming month. Currently, on Polymarket, Trump has a 66.3% chance of winning the US election, while Harris has a 33.8% chance.

Shifting Market Sentiment Triggers Volatility

Rising market expectations of Trump's victory have reignited the "Trump Trade," causing significant fluctuations in cryptocurrencies, Trump-related stocks, and the US dollar exchange rate. This phenomenon demonstrates that investor predictions about the outcome of the US election and their interpretations of different candidates' policies have a significant impact on market movements.

It's worth noting that this market volatility also reflects concerns about the future economic outlook. Trump's policies tend towards deregulation and tax cuts, which could potentially boost economic growth but also carry the risk of inflation. Harris, on the other hand, leans towards stronger regulations, which could potentially curb economic growth but also manage inflation. Investors remain uncertain about the impact of both policy approaches and the future trajectory of the US economy.

As the US election draws closer, market volatility is likely to intensify. Investors need to closely monitor election developments, interpret market signals, and make investment decisions cautiously.