Bitcoin Returns to $70,000, Institutions Bet on $80,000, $200,000 Target Price Coming True?

Bitcoin Returns to $70,000, Institutions Bet on $80,000, $200,000 Target Price Coming True?Bitcoin has touched the $70,000 mark again, after four months. As of October 30th, 8:23 AM, Bitcoin price was reported at $72,750, with other cryptocurrencies surging collectively

Bitcoin Returns to $70,000, Institutions Bet on $80,000, $200,000 Target Price Coming True?

Bitcoin has touched the $70,000 mark again, after four months. As of October 30th, 8:23 AM, Bitcoin price was reported at $72,750, with other cryptocurrencies surging collectively. Coinglass data shows that nearly 60,000 people liquidated their positions in the past 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $257 million. How long can Bitcoin continue to rise? Options traders are increasing their bets on Bitcoin, predicting that it will break through the historical high of $80,000 by the end of November, and some institutions have given out impressive target prices. Investment bank Bernstein predicts that Bitcoin's price could reach as high as $200,000 by the end of 2025.

Analysts generally believe that this surge in Bitcoin is closely related to the election campaign in the United States. Donald Trump had declared during his campaign that if he could return to the White House, he would make Bitcoin a strategic reserve asset for the United States and would also make the United States the "global capital of cryptocurrencies." Kamala Harris also chose a different path from Joe Biden, vowing to support cryptocurrencies.

But from a fundamental perspective, how far can Bitcoin's latest "runaway journey" go?

Booming market! Short-term and long-term benefits intertwine

Institutions and investors are buying heavily, why has Bitcoin seen a booming market recently? In the short term, Trump's trade and loose monetary policy are two "catalysts". James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, said in a report that Bitcoin's current price and flow are significantly influenced by US politics, and the recent surge in inflows may be related to changes in the Republican election campaign. The global shift in major central bank policies and the loose liquidity have boosted risk sentiment, which has also become a tailwind for cryptocurrencies. Multiple central banks around the world have been actively cutting interest rates since 2024.

Moreover, the market generally predicts that there may be a risk of rising inflation in the United States after the election, which objectively has boosted this round of Bitcoin market. Cao Xiao, deputy dean of the School of Finance at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, told the 21st Century Business Herald that as Bitcoin gradually becomes a mainstream allocation asset, it is seen as an asset that fights inflation, just like gold, becoming "digital gold". And recently, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has strengthened inflation expectations, "digital gold" has seen its price rise along with gold.

In the long term, Bitcoin's fundamentals also have strong demand support. Cao Xiao believes that firstly, Bitcoin's future applications in the financial industry are already clear, and its application in financial models such as financing and lending has already become the most active area of financial innovation. The financial models surrounding Bitcoin have also become the core content of digital finance, which is the fundamental reason for the continued rise in Bitcoin's price.

Secondly, with the clear practical uses of Bitcoin, as Bitcoin futures and spot ETFs have been launched, Bitcoin has become a mainstream allocation asset for asset management institutions. Financial institutions' allocation and holding of Bitcoin have increased the demand for Bitcoin.

At the same time, the rise of Bitcoin is also related to the surge in large technology stocks. Wang Yingbo, assistant researcher at the Information Institute of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, told the 21st Century Business Herald that the U.S. election campaign and the interest rate cut cycle are short-term factors driving Bitcoin's rise. In the long run, Bitcoin is a digital asset, and the background of its sharp rise is the accelerated digitalization of the overall industry, with resources rapidly shifting from carbon-based to silicon-based. This is the long-term factor that has driven Bitcoin's rise. As a result, it can be seen that over the past year, not only have digital currencies such as Bitcoin been rising, but the seven giants of the US digital economy have also been rising sharply, with their gains even exceeding Bitcoin's.

Giants enter the game! Funds flow in madly

In March of this year, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $73,798, then entered a downward channel, hovering between $50,000 and $70,000. In August, it even saw a sharp pullback, with a monthly decline of 10.25%. But entering September, stimulated by central bank interest rate cuts and the release of liquidity, Bitcoin reversed its decline, with a 7.35% monthly increase, achieving its best September performance in history. In the past month, Bitcoin has been rising amid volatility, with a monthly gain of 12.30%.

During this time, a massive amount of funds has poured into Bitcoin. According to data from asset management company CoinShares, as of the week ending October 25th, Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of $920 million, with inflows of $25.4 billion year-to-date, almost triple the inflows in 2021. Even last weekend, when Tether, the world's largest stablecoin issuer, was reported to be under investigation by US regulators, it did not hinder the surge in cryptocurrencies. On Monday, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies rose 2.28%, jumping to $2.33 trillion.

In the past two weeks, asset management giant BlackRock has bought a record 30,000 Bitcoin (worth about $2.3 billion), bringing its holdings to over 400,000. According to documents from the Securities and Exchange Commission, tech giant Microsoft is also considering entering the Bitcoin market.

Can it continue to rise? Institutional predictions: Could reach as high as $200,000

Looking ahead, the cryptocurrency market is dominated by optimistic bullish sentiment. Traders are increasing their bets on call options. Data shows that call options expiring on November 8th are concentrated at a strike price of $75,000, and call options (open interest) expiring on November 29th are concentrated at a strike price of around $80,000. David Lawant, Head of Research at cryptocurrency brokerage FalconX, said: "We believe the market consensus is that Bitcoin is likely to perform well regardless of the outcome of the US election. Team analysis shows that options activity exhibits a clear upward bias surrounding the upcoming election."

Many institutions have given even more impressive target prices. Investment bank Bernstein predicts that Bitcoin's price could reach as high as $200,000 by the end of 2025. Sathvik Vishwanath, co-founder and CEO of Unocoin, said that Bitcoin has a certain cyclical nature, and has historically seen strong growth at the end of the year, and 2024 could see a repetition of this trend. Historical trends show that Bitcoin has averaged a 26% gain in October, a 36% gain in November, and an 11% gain in December, supporting the optimistic expectation that Bitcoin could break through $100,000.

Cao Xiao, deputy dean of the School of Finance at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, pointed out that multiple factors will support the long-term rise in Bitcoin's price. In addition, the Bitcoin market is transforming into one dominated by institutions, and price fluctuations will continue to converge, and may not necessarily reach $80,000 in the short term.

Bitcoin's future is not without potential obstacles. Nicholas Sciberras, senior analyst at CollectiveShift, points out that if Bitcoin continues to be targeted by governments and its energy consumption is further regulated, this could put pressure on Bitcoin's long-term rise. Another long-term concern is how to ensure the security of the cryptocurrency when the block reward is reduced.

"Bitcoin, as a new investment product, still has relatively high market risks, and the possibility of large fluctuations still exists, and it is important to be aware of investment risks," Cao Xiao reminded.

Wang Yingbo, assistant researcher at the Information Institute of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Bitcoin is essentially a speculative asset, not a transactional currency, and its short-term price is affected by multiple disturbance factors, making it difficult to determine. But in the long term, if there is no higher-dimensional digital currency technology emerging, Bitcoin is expected to maintain its upward trend.