With the US Presidential Election Approaching, Bitcoin Soars on Trump's Influence: Can It Continue to Rise?

With the US Presidential Election Approaching, Bitcoin Soars on Trump's Influence: Can It Continue to Rise?Bitcoin price has experienced a significant drop today, breaching the $68,000 mark during the session. This stands in stark contrast to the strong rally Bitcoin has seen in recent days

With the US Presidential Election Approaching, Bitcoin Soars on Trump's Influence: Can It Continue to Rise?

Bitcoin price has experienced a significant drop today, breaching the $68,000 mark during the session. This stands in stark contrast to the strong rally Bitcoin has seen in recent days. On October 29th, Bitcoin surged past $74,000, reaching an all-time high. However, a subsequent correction followed, with over 100,000 users experiencing liquidations in the past 24 hours.

This surge in Bitcoin's value has been closely linked to the current US presidential election race. During his campaign, Donald Trump publicly stated that if he were to return to the White House, he would designate Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for the United States and strive to make the country the "global cryptocurrency capital." Kamala Harris, on the other hand, opted for a different approach than Biden, promising to support the growth of cryptocurrency.

Trump's enthusiasm for the crypto industry has made Bitcoin a "Trump trade." During the campaign, the crypto industry invested heavily in promoting Trump's agenda. As Trump gained ground in prediction markets, the price of Bitcoin soared.

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research Inc. noted in a report: "While Bitcoin may decline if Harris wins the election, the reaction of Bitcoin to a Trump presidency is harder to gauge." He argues that "Bitcoin could continue to rise, or, considering its gains thus far this year, could see a classic 'buy the rumor, sell the news' situation."

However, uncertainty in the market has been amplified by speculation among US Democrats that Trump might declare victory prematurely in this year's election. Harris' campaign team has begun preparing strategies to quickly respond to the situation, urging people to remain calm and patient during the counting process.

A recent poll revealed that Harris is only slightly ahead of Trump by a narrow margin of 1%. However, 10% of voters may change their minds before the election, implying that the final election result remains uncertain.

Despite the recent pullback in Bitcoin prices, the market remains optimistic about the future of cryptocurrency. Traders are increasingly betting on call options. Data shows that call options expiring on November 8th have a strike price concentrated around $75,000, while those expiring on November 29th (open interest) have a strike price concentrated around $80,000.

David Lawant, Head of Research at cryptocurrency brokerage FalconX, stated: "We believe the market consensus is that Bitcoin is likely to perform well regardless of the outcome of the US election. Team analysis reveals a clear upward bias in options activity surrounding the upcoming election."

Many institutions have also provided more optimistic price targets. Investment bank Bernstein predicts that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.

Wang Yingbo, Assistant Researcher at the Information Institute of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, believes that Bitcoin is essentially a speculative asset rather than a transactional currency, and its short-term price fluctuations are difficult to predict due to various disturbing factors. However, in the long term, unless a higher-dimensional digital currency technology emerges, Bitcoin is expected to maintain an upward trajectory.

Whether Bitcoin can continue its rise is a question that the US presidential election will play a significant role in answering. While the market maintains an optimistic outlook on the future development of cryptocurrency, investors need to be cautious about market fluctuations and invest rationally.