Trumps Re-Election: A Survival Game for Tech Giants

Trumps Re-Election: A Survival Game for Tech GiantsDonald Trump has won the 2024 US presidential election. Although the majority of tech workers in Silicon Valley still voted for Democrats, a red wave has swept across the country

Trumps Re-Election: A Survival Game for Tech Giants

Donald Trump has won the 2024 US presidential election. Although the majority of tech workers in Silicon Valley still voted for Democrats, a red wave has swept across the country. Regardless of whether they voted for Trump, almost the entire tech world will feel the profound impact of this victory. From social media companies, cryptocurrency investors, to companies working on the next generation of artificial intelligence systems, none will be spared. Trumps first term was full of uncertainties, creating a chaotic business environment that even large tech companies struggled to adapt to. In the future, chaos and uncertainty are likely to intensify.

Musk Plays His Cards Right

Elon Musk, the most prominent and controversial figure in the tech world, has perhaps been more influential in helping Trump win than any other public figure in America. As one of Trumps biggest donors and supporters, Musk not only opened his wallet but also turned his social network X into a propaganda platform for the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement, constantly pushing content supporting Trump and actively urging people to vote.

Trumps victory will undoubtedly make Musk the biggest beneficiary, propelling him to become the most powerful business leader in America. If Trump appoints Musk to a government position, such as the Secretary of Department of Government Efficiency in charge of streamlining federal agencies, Musk will have the power to decide who regulates his businesses, including Tesla and SpaceX. He might even fire those who stand in his way, or, as he did at Twitter, conduct massive layoffs of government personnel, keeping only those he considers loyal. All of this would be extremely beneficial for Musk. Compared to the potential influence he might wield in the new government, the $44 billion he spent acquiring Twitter and supporting Trumps campaign seems insignificant.

Compromises of Tech CEOs:

Not only Musk actively courted Trumps favor, but many Silicon Valley leaders were also eager to align themselves with the new administration. During Trumps first term, some tech leaders bravely confronted him, withdrawing from advisory boards and questioning his policies. However, they found that opposing Trump publicly came at a cost. For example, Amazon claimed in court that it lost a $10 billion contract with the Department of Defense due to a personal grudge between Trump and founder Jeff Bezos. This time, they were unwilling to repeat the same mistake.

On the eve of the election, some prominent tech leaders had begun to show good graces towards Trump, including Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, whom Trump had threatened to put in jail. Even Trumps old rival, Bezos, avoided direct criticism of him and congratulated Trump on social media. Of course, there are some tech leaders who are secretly discontent with Trump, and some even dare to openly oppose him. But given the various acts of flattery that occurred during the campaign, it is expected that most tech CEOs will silently accept Trumps second-term agenda, even if they dont actively support it.

Cryptocurrency Prices May Soar:

Trump had previously been reserved about cryptocurrencies but has become a supporter of the industry over the past year, making several promises during his campaign in exchange for donations from cryptocurrency organizations. It is foreseeable that the cryptocurrency industry will gain the support it needs in Washington during Trumps second term. The primary target will be to force the resignation of Gary Gensler, Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), who has become a thorn in the side of the industry due to his strict regulations.

Cryptocurrency companies that were sued or investigated during the Biden administration may get away with it during the Trump administration, and pro-cryptocurrency voices will dominate in setting new rules. Therefore, cryptocurrency prices are expected to soar. The price of Bitcoin has already risen significantly since news of Trumps lead spread on Tuesday evening. Investors and executives who poured huge sums into supporting Trump and other crypto-friendly candidates may feel that the investment was well worth it.

Antitrust Issues Gradually Subside (Except for Google)

For officials who were responsible for pursuing antitrust battles with Silicon Valleys big tech companies during the Biden administration, Trump and his allies may replace them. Musk has made it clear that Lina Khan, Chair of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), should be fired, as she led the lawsuits against Amazon and Meta. Trump may also make a major shakeup at the Department of Justice, replacing law enforcement officials responsible for prosecuting companies such as Apple.

However, Google might not benefit from this change. For years, conservatives, including Trumps running mate JD Vance, have been dissatisfied with Google, accusing it of bias against conservatives, although there is insufficient evidence. During Trumps first term, he even supported breaking up Google. Now, Google seems to be a target, even facing controversy over issues like its AI systems generating images of historical figures with racial characteristics. Additionally, Google has done a poor job lobbying Republicans compared to some of its peers. No matter how hard Google CEO Sundar Pichai tries, Googles situation in Washington will be challenging for the next four years.

TikTok Survives

ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, might be celebrating Trumps victory. According to the TikTok Ban passed and signed by Congress this year, ByteDance is supposed to sell TikToks US operations by January next year, otherwise it will face a nationwide ban. However, this might not happen, because although Trump tried to ban TikTok during his first term, he changed his stance this year under the lobbying of major investors. He has since promised to keep TikTok in the US. While Trump cant overturn the law alone, and TikTok still faces the risk of losing in court, he might refuse to enforce the ban or fulfill his promise in other ways.

Acceleration of Artificial Intelligence Progress:

During the campaign, neither Trump nor Harris paid much attention to artificial intelligence. However, it is foreseeable that AI development may accelerate during Trumps second term. The tech elite who support Trump, including venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, have close ties to accelerationists in the AI field. They oppose any regulatory regulations that would slow down industry development.

In fact, Trump might not pay much attention to the AI field, and he might leave it to his running mate Vance, who seems to be interested in the topic. However, Trumps views might be influenced by those around him. It is expected that he will adopt a stance of encouraging American tech companies to lead the world and removing regulatory barriers. It is worth noting that Musks stance on this issue is inconsistent. He runs the AI company xAI, and a relaxed regulatory environment would be beneficial to him, but he is also concerned about the existential risks posed by AI and supports a bill in California aimed at implementing safety standards for AI models, a bill opposed by many companies.

Social Media Takes a Right Turn

For years, Republicans in Washington have accused US mainstream social media companies of bias against them. This is largely a strategy to make Silicon Valley companies adjust rules to cater to conservatives for fear of being accused, rather than genuine concern for social media neutrality.

Surprisingly, these Republicans have remained silent about Musks strong support for Trump on X. It is foreseeable that X will become a friendly platform for Trumps supporters during his second term. Meanwhile, some emerging social media networks, such as Threads and Bluesky, may attract more and more left-wing users who view X and Musk as the culprits who helped Trump win.

More mainstream social media companies may follow Xs lead and adjust their policies and practices in advance to avoid confrontation with the new administration. They may not restore accounts of extremists and conspiracy theorists as Musk did, nor will they label the term cisgender as offensive. However, given that CEOs are not eager to restart disputes with Trump on content moderation and political bias, many companies will tread carefully to avoid conflict.

Shift in Silicon Valleys Political Spectrum:

Trumps victory could bring some disadvantages to Silicon Valley. If the immigration restrictions he promised in his campaign affect tech companies recruitment plans, or if increased tariffs raise product costs, or if anti-abortion policies threaten the rights of female employees, Silicon Valley leaders support for him may decline.

However, in the short term, the phenomenon of supporting Trump no longer being considered taboo might become a sign of tech elites gradually accepting him. For example, a popular Silicon Valley venture capitalist and podcast host, Harry Stebbings, revealed that 90% of guests avoided discussing politics and elections during recordings but privately expressed support for Trump afterward. Now, with Trump re-elected, these Silicon Valley elites might be more courageous to publicly express their political views.

If this is truly the case, the overall atmosphere in Silicon Valley might change, feeling more like a political swing state. Its important to note that this doesnt mean Silicon Valley will undergo a complete political transformation. The majority of tech workers in California will still lean towards supporting Democrats and progressive policies. However, in Silicon Valley workplaces, and on those podcasts and YouTube channels that widely influence industry views, things might be different compared to 2016. Back then, those who supported Trump mostly kept a low profile, but now that attitude might change.