Bitcoin Surges to New All-Time High After Trump's Win, $125,000 Target Within Reach?

Bitcoin Surges to New All-Time High After Trump's Win, $125,000 Target Within Reach?The US election results are out, with Trump successfully winning re-election, sending Bitcoin prices soaring to a new all-time high. As of November 12th, Beijing time, Bitcoin touched $89,982

Bitcoin Surges to New All-Time High After Trump's Win, $125,000 Target Within Reach?

The US election results are out, with Trump successfully winning re-election, sending Bitcoin prices soaring to a new all-time high. As of November 12th, Beijing time, Bitcoin touched $89,982.93 per coin, approaching the $90,000 mark for the first time. As of 5:00 PM Beijing time, Bitcoin remained at a high of $89,187 per coin. Industry analysts are generally bullish on Bitcoin, believing that factors such as Trump's election as US President and expectations of Fed rate cuts will continue to fuel Bitcoin's upward momentum.

Geoff Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, boldly predicted in a report last month that Bitcoin would reach $125,000 by the end of the year if Trump won. This prediction sparked discussions in the market after Trump's victory, with market sentiment surging and Bitcoin prices continuing to rise.

Bitcoin Hits New Highs: Trump Trade Ignites the Market

Since news of Trump's victory spread on November 6th, US time, Bitcoin prices have surged across the board, reaching $80,000 per coin for the first time on the 10th, with a daily increase of 4%. On the 12th, it reached $89,000 per coin, only a step away from $90,000. Since November, Bitcoin has gained over 23%.

Besides Bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies dubbed "Trump trade" have also witnessed a surge in prices. Ethereum has seen a weekly increase of 34%, Dogecoin has gained over 32% within the week, and the global cryptocurrency market capitalization has climbed by approximately 7% within the week.

"Bitcoin Act" Becomes a Market Expectation, Trump's Policies Favor Cryptocurrencies

Following Trump's victory, the "Bitcoin Act" has become one of the most anticipated US policies. Proposed by Wyoming Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis in July 2023, the bill aims to establish Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for the United States, with plans for the US government to hold 5% of the total Bitcoin supply.

Xiao Sa, senior partner at Beijing Dacheng Law Firm, points out that the surge in crypto assets is based on a series of regulatory promises made by Trump during his campaign. These promises have fostered a positive outlook among market participants towards crypto assets.

Haitong Securities Research in its report indicates that Trump had announced at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, USA, that if he returned to the White House, he would ensure that the government retained 100% of its Bitcoin holdings and would designate Bitcoin as a US strategic reserve asset, solidifying the US as the global cryptocurrency hub and a Bitcoin superpower.

Trump previously stated his intention to make the US the "cryptocurrency capital of the world." Moreover, he expressed his desire to fire the current US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler on his first day in office, citing Gensler's stricter regulatory policies towards the cryptocurrency industry. In recent years, under Gensler's leadership, the SEC has launched numerous lawsuits against industry giants like Binance and Coinbase.

Will Bitcoin Continue Its Uptrend?

Following its string of new highs, will Bitcoin continue its upward momentum? Fueled by the news of Trump's victory, Bitcoin bulls are increasingly bullish, with more and more people expecting Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by year-end.

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, points out that considering the positive political momentum, social media hype, continued rate cuts, and the prospect of Bitcoin becoming a US strategic reserve asset, its price could climb further.

Bulls on Wall Street are also plentiful. Last week, Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani et al. wrote in a report that the election results will "have a short-term impact on crypto market sentiment." He predicts that in the event of Trump's victory, Bitcoin could rise to between $80,000 and $90,000 in the next two months, surpassing the previous all-time high of nearly $73,800 set in March this year.

Jan VanEck, CEO of leading asset management firm VanEck, has made an even bolder prediction, anticipating Bitcoin prices to reach $300,000. He calls this target a "reasonable base assumption" and even considers this estimate conservative, as some extremists might expect Bitcoin to soar even higher.

Risk Warning: Short-Term Volatility Still Exists, Invest Rationally

While Bitcoin has been performing well recently, interviewed industry experts and investors generally acknowledge that significant investment risks remain.

On the one hand, Bitcoin's price movement has been relatively volatile in the past two weeks. At the end of October, Bitcoin surged above $70,000 per coin, but it quickly retreated in early November, dipping to $67,000 per coin on November 4th. It wasn't until after November 5th that Bitcoin prices started to climb consistently.

• On the other hand, although cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have seen an overall upswing, rapid fluctuations still exist in the short term. Coinglass data reveals that over the past day, Bitcoin's market saw both long and short liquidations, with a total of 166,000 users experiencing liquidations, amounting to nearly $600 million. Among them, long liquidations accounted for $230 million, while short liquidations reached $370 million.

The above industry research personnel told reporters that market sentiment in the digital asset market is hot, making it prone to correction risks. They recommend that investors reduce high-leverage operations during this period and rationally assess their risk tolerance.

Three Key Factors Influencing Future Market Trajectory: Policy, Economy, and Compliance

Citi strategists recently wrote in a report that cryptocurrencies are among the few "Trump trades" that haven't yet pulled back, partly driven by the Trump administration's crypto-friendly stance. On November 12th, US president-elect Trump is preparing to usher in a more accommodating stance for cryptocurrencies from the US government. He is seeking out candidates for key positions who are friendly to the crypto industry, while his senior advisors are consulting with crypto executives on potential changes to federal policies. Initial discussions have centered around a range of financial regulators, including the US SEC.

Zhao Wei, senior researcher at OKX Research, points out, "During the US election, Trump has repeatedly expressed his support for cryptocurrencies, viewed by the market as a significant positive signal. His victory has further fueled the general surge in Bitcoin and the entire crypto market." He believes that the soaring market sentiment and the influx of substantial capital have played a crucial role in Bitcoin's consecutive breakthroughs of historical highs.

"The current global economic uncertainty is increasing. How US economic policies will evolve, how Trump will implement crypto policies after taking office, and how the crypto market will advance compliance are all crucial factors influencing the future trajectory of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market. These are pieces of information that traders need to keep a close eye on," Zhao Wei adds.

Market Outlook: Options Traders Bet on $100,000, Institutions Expect Market Cap to Surpass $10 Trillion

Many analysts hold high expectations for Bitcoin's future performance. Currently, Bitcoin options traders have set their sights on $100,000. According to data from cryptocurrency options exchange Deribit, investors are heavily betting that Bitcoin will hit this milestone by the end of the year. As of Monday morning, there were approximately 9,635 Bitcoin (worth about $780 million) in open contracts betting on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 27th, making it the largest trade for contracts expiring on that date. However, Deribit estimates the probability of this contract expiring in the money to be only 18.6%.

Standard Chartered Bank expects Bitcoin to continue its upward trend and challenge $100,000 by year-end, and by the end of 2026, the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market is projected to grow to $10 trillion.

Sources: Yicai, 21st Century Business Herald, Economic Observer, etc.