Bitcoin Hits All-Time High Above \$91,000 as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Grow

Bitcoin Hits All-Time High Above \$91,000 as Fed Rate Cut Expectations GrowOn November 13th, US CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year in October, meeting expectations, and traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in December

Bitcoin Hits All-Time High Above \$91,000 as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Grow

On November 13th, US CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year in October, meeting expectations, and traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in December. Influenced by this news, Bitcoin broke through \$91,000, hitting an all-time high, with a daily increase of over 4%.

On the same day, US stocks opened slightly higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.20%, the Nasdaq up 0.03%, and the S&P 500 index up 0.07%. In terms of individual stocks, Tesla opened up over 4% after Elon Musk was chosen to lead the Efficiency Department in the new Trump administration. US space launch company RocketLabUSA opened up over 35% after the company's fourth quarter revenue forecast exceeded market expectations. Amazon's AWS is about to finalize a \$475 million, five-year agreement to provide services related to Nvidia GPUs to IBM. Earlier, Nvidia announced at a summit in Japan that it would partner with SoftBank to build AI infrastructure in Japan, including the country's largest AI factory, to accelerate the development of Japan's robotics, automotive, healthcare, and telecommunications industries.

The US CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year in October, in line with market expectations, while core CPI remained at 3.3%, the same as in September. After the data was released, US major stock index futures moved almost unchanged after a brief rise, while the US dollar index and US 10-year Treasury yields fell sharply. The recent strengthening of the dollar has pushed the yen to its highest level against the dollar since July, breaking through 155.

Regarding the Fed's interest rate path, after the US inflation data was released, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in December. CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a Fed rate cut in December has significantly increased to 79.3%, while the probability was less than 60% the day before. Fed official Kashkari said that inflation is moving in the right direction, but the Fed needs to see more data to determine whether another rate cut at the December meeting would be appropriate.

In other markets, Bitcoin broke through \$90,000 and then broke through the \$91,000 integer mark again within 5 minutes, hitting an all-time high, with a daily increase of over 4%. CompaniesMarketCap data shows that Bitcoin has surpassed silver in global asset classes to rank eighth. Affected by this, US stock cryptocurrency concept stocks rose. Coinglass data shows that over 200,000 people have liquidated their positions in the cryptocurrency field in the past 24 hours. Coingecko data shows that the global cryptocurrency market capitalization rose 1.5% on the day, exceeding \$3.1 trillion, for the first time since 2022.

The US CPI data for October shows that energy prices have had a significant drag on overall inflation, with energy prices, which had been steadily declining for the past two months, remaining flat in October. Food inflation eased in October, with food prices rising 0.2% on the month, down from 0.4% the previous month. Grocery prices rose 0.1%, down from 0.4% in September. Egg prices fell sharply, down 6.4% in October, compared to an 8.4% rise in September and a 4.8% rise in August. New car costs were flat compared to September, but down 1.3% year-on-year. Prices for used cars and trucks rose 2.7%, but were down 3.4% over the past year. Housing inflation in the US ticked up in October. Housing costs have been one of the most stubborn inflation categories and one of the most important, as housing makes up a large share of Americans' monthly budgets. The Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that 65% of the year-on-year increase in core inflation was driven by housing costs.

(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, China Securities Journal)