The foldable phone market is cooling: 2024 shipments are down year-on-year, can Apple be the savior?

The foldable phone market is cooling: 2024 shipments are down year-on-year, can Apple be the savior?A December 2nd blog post from market research firm DSCC revealed a year-on-year decline in global foldable phone display shipments for the third quarter of 2024 the first such decline and predicts this trend will continue into 2025. This signals a significant challenge for a market that once experienced rapid growth

The foldable phone market is cooling: 2024 shipments are down year-on-year, can Apple be the savior?

A December 2nd blog post from market research firm DSCC revealed a year-on-year decline in global foldable phone display shipments for the third quarter of 2024 the first such decline and predicts this trend will continue into 2025. This signals a significant challenge for a market that once experienced rapid growth.

From 2019 to 2023, the foldable phone market enjoyed annual growth of at least 40%. However, this momentum stalled in 2024. DSCC forecasts only 5% growth in 2024, followed by a 4% decline in 2025, with market demand stagnating at around 22 million panels. More worryingly, foldable phone display purchases dropped by 38% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with declines expected in four out of the next five quarters.

Even Samsung, the market leader, hasn't been immune to this downturn. The Galaxy Z Flip6 and older foldable models are experiencing slower-than-expected adoption; DSCC projects Z Flip6 panel shipments will be more than 10% lower in 2024 than the Z Flip5 in 2023. While Z Fold6 sales are projected to slightly outpace the Z Fold5, Samsung's total foldable panel purchases are still expected to fall by over 20%, reaching their lowest point since 2021. This demonstrates the impact of the overall market decline even on the leading brand.

Currently, beyond Samsung and Huawei, no other strong competitor exists. These two companies together accounted for 70% of panel purchases in 2023 and 2024, a share projected to increase further in 2025. This oligopoly limits competition and exacerbates the overall market weakness.

The report also points to several factors contributing to the slowdown, including price inelasticity, limited profit margins, sluggish sales, and thermal management issues. These challenges are prompting some Chinese brands to reduce their foldable phone investments. High prices are a major barrier to mass adoption, while relatively low profit margins discourage significant R&D and production investment. Furthermore, heat dissipation remains a persistent problem, impacting user experience.

Against this backdrop, many industry insiders are looking to Apple. While the current foldable smartphone market is stagnant due to waning consumer interest, reports suggest Apple's upcoming foldable iPhone could be a game-changer. Apple's dominant position in the flagship smartphone market could bring significant growth to the foldable sector in 2026, ultimately driving record sales.

Apple's entry would inject new vitality into the market. Its strong brand recognition, mature supply chain, and technological prowess could enhance the competitiveness of foldable phones, improve user experience, and reduce production costs. However, whether Apple can replicate its success in the traditional smartphone market and reverse the current downward trend in the foldable market remains to be seen.

In conclusion, the year-on-year decline in global foldable phone display shipments in Q3 2024 signifies a period of adjustment. Declining sales from major players like Samsung, and cautious approaches from Chinese manufacturers, reflect weak market demand. The combined effect of price, profit margins, technology, and market competition has led to the current slump. Apple's potential entry will be a key factor determining the future trajectory of the foldable phone market. While promising, whether the foldable phone market truly recovers requires time and market validation. Manufacturers are striving to overcome technical challenges, lower production costs, and enhance user experience to gain a competitive edge. The battle for foldable phone dominance has only just begun, and the future remains uncertain.

The current market downturn presents both challenges and opportunities. Existing manufacturers need to adapt to market changes, improve product design, enhance user experience, and explore new development directions. Potential entrants, such as Apple, need to carefully assess market risks and develop sound market strategies to succeed in this competitive landscape. The future of the foldable phone market will be shaped by technological innovation, market demand, and manufacturers' strategic decisions. It will be a long-term battle, and the ultimate winners will be those who adapt to market changes and offer high-quality, cost-effective products. Continuous monitoring of market trends and proactive responses to challenges will be crucial for success. However, market recovery won't happen overnight; it requires the collaborative efforts of the entire industry chain to propel foldable phones towards a brighter future.