Foldable Screen Market Growth Slows: Q3 2024 Panel Shipments Down 38% YoY, Significant Future Challenges Ahead

Foldable Screen Market Growth Slows: Q3 2024 Panel Shipments Down 38% YoY, Significant Future Challenges AheadA recent report from Display Supply Chain Consultants (DSCC) reveals a 38% year-over-year decline in foldable display panel shipments during the third quarter of 2024. This marks the first year-over-year drop since 2019, signaling a stagnation in the previously rapidly expanding foldable phone market and presenting significant future challenges

Foldable Screen Market Growth Slows: Q3 2024 Panel Shipments Down 38% YoY, Significant Future Challenges Ahead

A recent report from Display Supply Chain Consultants (DSCC) reveals a 38% year-over-year decline in foldable display panel shipments during the third quarter of 2024. This marks the first year-over-year drop since 2019, signaling a stagnation in the previously rapidly expanding foldable phone market and presenting significant future challenges. The report paints a complex and uncertain picture for the future of the foldable phone industry.

From 2019 to 2023, foldable panel shipments grew by at least 40% annually, demonstrating strong momentum. However, this impressive growth came to an abrupt halt in 2024. DSCC predicts only a 4% growth in foldable panel shipments in 2024, followed by a 4% decline in 2025, ultimately stabilizing at around 22 million units. This signifies the end of the high-growth phase for the foldable phone market, ushering in a new developmental stage.

Even more concerning is the prediction of year-over-year declines in foldable panel shipments in four out of the next five quarters. This suggests the challenges facing the foldable phone market are not temporary fluctuations but rather structural issues. High prices and limited profit margins are key factors contributing to the slowdown. Many smartphone brands are reevaluating their foldable phone strategies. Some have ceased development of smaller foldable phones, while others have completely exited the market, further exacerbating the contraction.

Samsung and Huawei remain the two major players in the foldable phone market. However, even these giants are feeling the pressure from the slowing growth. Samsung Galaxy Z Flip6 shipments are expected to be over 10% lower than the Galaxy Z Flip5 in 2023. While the Galaxy Z Fold6 is anticipated to see growth over the Z Fold5, it's only expected to be in the single digits. Samsung's foldable panel procurement is projected to drop by over 20%, reaching its lowest level since 2021. This demonstrates that even market leaders are not immune to the negative impacts of the slowing growth.

High prices are a major barrier to further development of the foldable phone market. Foldable phones are generally much more expensive than traditional smartphones, limiting their potential consumer base. Limited profit margins also make many manufacturers hesitant to invest in R&D and production. Continued R&D investment and relatively low market share significantly challenge the profitability of foldable phones.

However, the foldable market is not without hope. DSCC's report also notes that Apple plans to enter the foldable phone market in 2026. Given Apple's leadership in the traditional smartphone market and its strong brand influence, the launch of a foldable iPhone is expected to inject new vitality into the market and create new growth points.

The report predicts Apple's entry will significantly alter the market landscape. 2026 is expected to be a record year for foldable devices, with growth exceeding 30%. Growth is projected to continue in 2027 and 2028, exceeding 20% annually. This indicates that despite current challenges, significant growth potential remains.

Beyond the phone market, foldable technology is expanding into other areas. DSCC predicts at least one brand will launch a tri-fold laptop in 2026. This highlights the application potential of foldable technology in various fields, offering new directions for the future development of the foldable market.

In conclusion, DSCC's report reveals both the challenges and opportunities facing the foldable phone market. While the 38% year-over-year decline in Q3 2024 foldable panel shipments is significant, it doesn't signal the end of the foldable market. Apple's entry and the application of foldable technology in other sectors offer new hope. Future market development will depend on how manufacturers address market challenges, innovate, and enhance product competitiveness. The next few years will see significant changes and adjustments in the foldable market. Whether sustained and stable growth can be achieved remains to be seen. However, it's certain that the market remains full of opportunities and challenges, and its trajectory warrants continued attention. Price, technological maturity, and consumer acceptance will be key factors determining the future direction of the market. Manufacturers need to continuously improve technology, reduce production costs, and actively explore new applications to secure a place in this competitive market. Consumer acceptance of foldable phones will directly impact the ultimate size and speed of this market's development.