The foldable phone panel market is cooling: Samsung and Huawei's duopoly faces challenges

The foldable phone panel market is cooling: Samsung and Huawei's duopoly faces challengesCounterpoint Research's latest data reveals a concerning trend: foldable phone display shipments saw their first year-over-year decline in Q3 2024, a downturn projected to continue into 2025. This is primarily attributed to underperforming market leaders Samsung and Huawei, signaling a significant challenge to the once-booming foldable phone market

The foldable phone panel market is cooling: Samsung and Huawei's duopoly faces challenges

Counterpoint Research's latest data reveals a concerning trend: foldable phone display shipments saw their first year-over-year decline in Q3 2024, a downturn projected to continue into 2025. This is primarily attributed to underperforming market leaders Samsung and Huawei, signaling a significant challenge to the once-booming foldable phone market.

Samsung, the long-time dominant player, unexpectedly underperformed in Q3 2024. The flagship Galaxy Z Flip6, along with older models, fell short of expectations, leading to a projected panel shipment reduction of over 10% compared to the Z Flip5's performance in the previous year. While Samsung is still projected to hold 40% of the market share in 2024, maintaining its lead in foldable smartphone panel procurement, this represents a significant drop of over 12 percentage points from 52% in 2023. Even more worrying, Samsung's total foldable panel procurement is expected to decline by over 20%, reaching its lowest level since 2021. This clearly indicates that even the market leader is not immune to the overall cooling trend. A reassessment of its market strategy and product planning is necessary to address intensifying competition and evolving consumer demands.

Huawei, Samsung's main competitor, also faced considerable challenges in the second half of 2024. Its market share plummeted from 30% in Q2 to 13% in Q3, a dramatic fluctuation warranting attention. This sharp decline was mainly caused by the delayed launch of the Huawei Mate X6 and Pocket 3 compared to their predecessors, resulting in a delayed market response and missed crucial sales windows. Furthermore, lower-than-expected Mate X T panel procurement further exacerbated the negative impact, causing shipment delays and affecting overall market performance. Despite this, Huawei's foldable panel procurement in 2024 is still expected to grow by over 90%, with market share rising from 18% to 33%. This showcases Huawei's resilience and growth potential, but also highlights shortcomings in its product launch timing and market forecasting. Further optimization of product strategy and improved market responsiveness are crucial to capitalize on future opportunities.

Currently, no other brand poses a substantial threat to Samsung and Huawei. Together, they commanded approximately 70% of the foldable panel procurement market in 2023 and 2024, establishing a clear duopoly. This highly concentrated market structure reflects the high technical barriers to entry in the foldable phone sector and suggests that the market's future direction will largely depend on the strategic decisions and market performance of these two giants.

The declining foldable phone panel shipments reflect fluctuating market demand and highlight various industry challenges. Consumer acceptance of foldable phones, product pricing and performance, and technological maturity will all profoundly impact future market development. Samsung and Huawei, as market leaders, must proactively address these challenges, adjust their strategies, and enhance product competitiveness to maintain their leading positions. Other manufacturers should also seize opportunities and innovate to secure a share of this potentially lucrative market.

It's important to note that this market downturn doesn't signal the end of the foldable phone market, but rather a period of adjustment and reshuffling. After a period of rapid growth, the market is entering a more rational stage, with increasing demands for product quality, performance, and user experience. Manufacturers who adapt to market changes and offer more competitive products and services will thrive. Therefore, the future performance of Samsung and Huawei will directly influence the trajectory of the entire foldable phone market, warranting continued industry attention. This market slowdown also presents opportunities for other manufacturers; those who can seize opportunities and offer innovative and competitive products can still find a place in this market.

In conclusion, the decline in foldable phone panel shipments in Q3 2024 marks a new phase for this once rapidly growing market. Samsung and Huawei, as market leaders, must proactively address challenges and adjust their strategies to remain competitive. Other manufacturers should seize opportunities and strive for innovation to succeed in this challenging yet promising market. The future of the foldable phone market will be a fierce battleground of technological innovation and market competition, with only those who adapt to market changes and offer more competitive products and services ultimately achieving success.