The foldable phone market cools: Q3 2024 shipments decline for the first time, signaling future stagnation?

The foldable phone market cools: Q3 2024 shipments decline for the first time, signaling future stagnation?A recent report from DSCC (Display Supply Chain Consultants, a Counterpoint display research firm) released on December 12th reveals a surprising downturn: foldable smartphone display shipments experienced their first-ever year-over-year decline in the third quarter of 2024. This unexpected trend suggests the once-promising foldable phone market is facing unprecedented challenges

The foldable phone market cools: Q3 2024 shipments decline for the first time, signaling future stagnation?

A recent report from DSCC (Display Supply Chain Consultants, a Counterpoint display research firm) released on December 12th reveals a surprising downturn: foldable smartphone display shipments experienced their first-ever year-over-year decline in the third quarter of 2024. This unexpected trend suggests the once-promising foldable phone market is facing unprecedented challenges. DSCC's report not only points to the shipment decrease but also predicts continued sluggishness in 2025, attributing this to a complex interplay of factors warranting closer examination.

The report highlights lower-than-expected adoption rates for foldable phones, a result not of a single cause but a confluence of issues. First, market concentration is excessively high, with Samsung dominating and holding a significant market share. This over-reliance on a single manufacturer stifles market dynamism and innovation, increasing overall risk. While Samsung's Galaxy Z series has established its leadership, regional concentration limits broader foldable phone adoption.

Second, the gradual withdrawal of Chinese brands has impacted market growth. Previously, Chinese manufacturers aggressively entered the foldable phone market, aiming to compete with innovative designs and more competitive pricing. However, various factors have led many Chinese brands to scale back their investments in this sector, further destabilizing the market's competitive landscape. Their retreat weakens competition and overall market vitality.

Crucially, the current foldable phone market remains largely dominated by Huawei and Samsung, creating a duopoly that restricts new entrants and limits technological innovation and product diversification. Limited consumer choices and relatively high prices hinder overall market growth.

DSCC's report also offers predictions for the future. Apple's anticipated entry into the foldable phone market in the second half of 2026 is expected to significantly reshape the landscape. Apple's arrival could stimulate competition, driving technological innovation and price reductions, but it could also exacerbate competition, posing a greater challenge to existing players.

Furthermore, the report forecasts the emergence of more multi-foldable products in 2026, indicating a new direction for foldable phone technology. These devices could offer more diverse options and create new growth points. However, the higher R&D costs and technical challenges associated with multi-foldable products may limit their widespread adoption.

Beyond foldable phones, foldable laptops are also on the horizon. DSCC predicts the launch of the first slide-out laptop in 2025, signaling the expansion of foldable technology beyond smartphones and into other electronics, offering improved user experiences and creating new market opportunities.

In Q3 2024, based on panel purchases, Samsung dominated the top ten foldable smartphone rankings. Three Samsung models occupied the top three spots, with the Galaxy Z Flip6 leading with a 31% market share. Huawei and Motorola each had two models in the top ten, while Google, Honor, and Xiaomi each had one.

It's noteworthy that DSCC predicts 32 different foldable phone releases in 2025, compared to 41 in 2024. Despite declining shipments, the relatively high number of new model launches might reflect manufacturers' continued investment or strategic responses to market downturn. However, this doesn't alter the overall downward trend.

In conclusion, the first-ever decline in foldable phone shipments during Q3 2024 serves as a wake-up call for the industry. High market concentration, the gradual withdrawal of Chinese manufacturers, and a duopoly have contributed to this situation. While Apple's entry and the emergence of multi-foldable products offer potential for renewed growth, the future remains uncertain. The market's trajectory will depend on manufacturers' ability to innovate technologically, differentiate their products, effectively market them, and ultimately address consumer needs and current challenges.