Huawei MateX6 Sells Out Immediately: Is a Turning Point for the Foldable Phone Market Approaching?

Huawei MateX6 Sells Out Immediately: Is a Turning Point for the Foldable Phone Market Approaching?Since its official launch on December 14th, the Huawei MateX6, priced starting at 12,999, has rapidly ignited the market, becoming a highly sought-after product. Cai Lian She reporters visiting several Huawei flagship stores and consumer electronics stores in Shenzhen found that the MateX6 is currently only available for pre-order in gray, white, and blue

Huawei MateX6 Sells Out Immediately: Is a Turning Point for the Foldable Phone Market Approaching?

Since its official launch on December 14th, the Huawei MateX6, priced starting at 12,999, has rapidly ignited the market, becoming a highly sought-after product. Cai Lian She reporters visiting several Huawei flagship stores and consumer electronics stores in Shenzhen found that the MateX6 is currently only available for pre-order in gray, white, and blue. Delivery times are uncertain, and numerous pre-orders have been placed. The launch even saw crowds queuing from upstairs to downstairs. Staff at the Huawei flagship store in Vanke Mixc stated that only the 13,999 (12GB+512GB) version in gray, white, and blue is available for pre-order; other versions are sold out, and the collector's edition has been completely pre-ordered. Staff at the Suning flagship store in Vanke Mixc also confirmed that the MateX6 has been out of stock since its launch, with even display models unavailable.

The Huawei MateX6's explosive sales are not an isolated incident. While smartphone innovation has stagnated and demand remains sluggish, foldable phones have continued to exhibit high growth in recent years. Global foldable phone shipments increased by over 20% year-on-year in 2023. Counterpoint Research data shows that global foldable phone shipments surged by 49% and 48% in Q1 and Q2 of this year, respectively.

However, while the foldable phone market is widely considered a future profit growth point, a surprising "turning point" has emerged. Counterpoint Research data reveals a 1% year-on-year decline in global foldable smartphone shipments in Q3, marking the first-ever drop in this market. Simultaneously, the procurement volume of foldable phone displays also decreased for the first time, falling by a significant 38%.

Regarding the reasons for the market cooling, Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst Mengmeng Zhang explains that this is primarily related to Samsung's underwhelming sales of its foldable products this year. Samsung's performance in the Korean market was unsatisfactory, as the Korean foldable market is relatively mature, with high penetration rates and slow growth. Furthermore, despite being the first to launch foldable phones, Samsung's product improvements have been limited, leading many consumers to adopt a wait-and-see approach. While growth in the Chinese foldable phone market has slowed, it still possesses considerable potential.

The Suning staff member also mentioned that Huawei foldable phones have the best sales performance in their store, with even last year's MateX5 being out of stock. Vivo foldable phones follow, while Samsung foldable phones are relatively underperforming. Counterpoint data shows that although Samsung still holds a 56% market share in the global foldable phone market in Q3, its shipments decreased by 21% year-on-year. Meanwhile, Huawei, Honor, Motorola, and Xiaomi saw shipment growth of 23%, 121%, 164%, and 185%, respectively.

Several panel manufacturers indicated that the slowdown in foldable phone growth is related to some domestic manufacturers halting the development of smaller foldable phones and changes in new product launch schedules. Early this year, TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo predicted that OPPO and vivo had halted the release plans for their 2024 vertical folding models. Although OPPO executives later denied this, neither company has yet launched a new vertical folding phone. Furthermore, Huawei delayed the launch of its foldable phones this year, with the MateX6 series launching nearly three months later than the MateX5 series, which undoubtedly impacted annual sales.

DSCC's China Research Director Rita Li stated that Huawei's foldable panel procurement performance in the second half of the year was unsatisfactory, with its market share dropping from 30% in Q2 to 13% in Q3. The main reasons are the later launch of the MateX6 and Pocket3 compared to their predecessors, leading to delayed panel shipments, and lower-than-expected panel procurement for the MateX T. Based on this, DSCC has lowered its demand forecast for Huawei in 2024 by over 20%. Despite this, Huawei's foldable panel procurement volume growth in 2024 is still expected to exceed 90%, and its market share is projected to increase from 18% to 33%.

Looking ahead to 2025, the consensus among research firms is that the foldable phone market will move away from high-growth. Mengmeng Zhang stated that Counterpoint Research expects single-digit growth in foldable phone shipments this year, with further narrowing of growth next year. DSCC projects a slight decline in foldable display shipments in 2025. Mengmeng Zhang believes that the novelty of foldable phones has worn off after several years on the market, and their limited application scenarios and high prices make market cooling an inevitable trend.

It's noteworthy that the impact on foldable phone shipments and panels differs despite the overall market cooling. Foldable phone shipments are still showing positive growth, while display panels are declining. Rita Li explains that this is due to different baseline predictions for shipments and panels. Panel predictions are based on current order volumes, while shipment predictions are based on product lines and brand forecasts. Additionally, some 2024 panel inventory will be used next year, which also contributes to the discrepancy. Mengmeng Zhang further points out that as foldable phone manufacturers improve their processes, increased product yields and reduced damage rates mean fewer panels are needed for the same number of devices. He also mentions that panels currently constitute the highest portion of the cost of a foldable phone, followed by the main control chip, with hinges accounting for approximately 18% of the total cost.

Despite the slowdown in foldable phone growth, the industry chain remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of this category. TCL Huaxing's Vice President and General Manager of R&D Platform, Zhao Bin, stated that the long-term growth potential of the foldable phone market is still higher than that of the overall smartphone market. Canalys' recent report predicts that the compound annual growth rate of global smartphone shipments from 2024 to 2028 will be only about 1%.

Apple's entry into the market is another significant positive signal for the future. TCL Huaxing notes that leading manufacturers are continuously investing in foldable content, including Samsung and Huawei, and Apple is also rumored to be entering the field. Third-party market research data suggests that the growth rate of foldable phones may exceed that of overall smartphone growth. With Apple's patents related to foldable displays and hinges continuously surfacing, speculation about Apple launching a foldable phone in 2026 is growing.

Rita Li mentions that Apple is expected to enter the foldable phone market in the second half of 2026. Leveraging its dominant position in the flagship smartphone market, Apple could bring significant growth to the foldable phone market. Any improvements in form factor, functionality, application scenarios, and durability could drive new demand. 2026 is expected to be the best year for foldable phones historically, with growth potentially exceeding 30%, and growth also exceeding 20% in 2027 and 2028. Furthermore, at least one other brand is expected to adopt a tri-fold design by 2026, and the first foldable laptop is anticipated in 2025, with more similar products launching in 2026.

It is worth noting that Mengmeng Zhang points out that the specific form factor of Apple's foldable phone remains unclear. If it adopts a vertical folding design, the price point may not be very high, and the price difference with existing straight-screen phones may not be significant. This would create some competition, possibly eating into the market share of some high-end straight-screen phones.