IDC Predicts: Top 10 Insights into China's Smartphone Market in 2025 Steady Growth with AI as the New Focus

IDC Predicts: Top 10 Insights into China's Smartphone Market in 2025 Steady Growth with AI as the New FocusIDC China recently released its "Top 10 Insights into China's Smartphone Market in 2025," providing an in-depth analysis of future trends and painting a picture of a market brimming with both opportunities and challenges. The report forecasts steady growth for the Chinese smartphone market in 2025, with AI technology, foldable phones, and diversified ecosystems significantly shaping the market landscape

IDC Predicts: Top 10 Insights into China's Smartphone Market in 2025 Steady Growth with AI as the New Focus

IDC China recently released its "Top 10 Insights into China's Smartphone Market in 2025," providing an in-depth analysis of future trends and painting a picture of a market brimming with both opportunities and challenges. The report forecasts steady growth for the Chinese smartphone market in 2025, with AI technology, foldable phones, and diversified ecosystems significantly shaping the market landscape.

I. Steady Overall Market Growth, Foldable Phones Emerge

IDC predicts that China's smartphone shipments will reach 289 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. While the growth rate is relatively moderate, it indicates a stable growth trend and the resilience of the Chinese smartphone market. This suggests that despite challenges such as global economic downturn and lengthening consumer replacement cycles, China's large consumer base and upgrading consumption needs continue to support market development.

In contrast to the steady overall growth, the foldable phone market exhibits stronger growth momentum. IDC projects that shipments of foldable phones in China will reach approximately 10 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 10.6% until 2028. Foldable phones, with their unique form factor and superior user experience, are gradually gaining favor with consumers, becoming a significant force in the smartphone market. This growth trend suggests that foldable phone technology will continue to advance, and prices will become more affordable, further expanding market size.

II. Explosive Growth of AI Phones, Becoming a New Market Engine

The rapid development of artificial intelligence technology has brought new opportunities to the smartphone industry. IDC predicts that shipments of next-generation AI phones in China will reach 118 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59.8%, accounting for 40.7% of the overall market share. This remarkable growth rate underscores the immense potential of AI phones in the market.

The rise of AI phones benefits from manufacturers' significant investment in AI technology and the industry's active promotion of AI applications. AI Agents, as a crucial way for next-generation AI phones to enhance user experience, will become a powerful moat for brands to retain their user base. They can provide personalized services based on user needs, such as intelligent recommendations, voice assistants, and image recognition, thereby improving user satisfaction and loyalty. More and more manufacturers are integrating AI technology into various aspects of their phones to provide users with a more intelligent and convenient experience.

III. Data Privacy and Security Coexist with Ecosystem Diversification

As AI functionalities become increasingly prevalent in smartphones, user data privacy and security concerns are also becoming more prominent. While AI phones collect and utilize user data, they must prioritize data security and privacy protection. This is both a necessary measure to protect user rights and crucial for building user trust. Balancing AI application with data security will be a significant challenge for smartphone manufacturers in the future.

On the other hand, the mobile software system ecosystem is showing a trend towards diversification. The rise of the HarmonyOS ecosystem offers consumers more choices. IDC predicts that the share of smartphones supporting the HarmonyOS ecosystem will exceed 20% in 2025, indicating that diversified ecosystems are becoming a new direction for the smartphone market. The convenience of interoperability between different system phones will further enhance user experience, promote market competition, and drive technological innovation.

IV. Continued Price Differentiation, Diversified Consumer Needs

IDC's prediction shows that price segmentation in China's smartphone market will further continue in 2025. The market share of phones priced above $600 (approximately 4370) will reach 30.9%, a year-on-year increase of 2.1 percentage points; the market share of phones priced below $200 will also increase by 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 31.5%; while the market share of phones priced between $200 and $400 will shrink to 28.0%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points.

This price differentiation trend reflects the increasingly diverse needs of Chinese consumers. High-end market users' demand for high-performance, high-quality phones continues to grow, while low-end market users place more emphasis on cost-effectiveness. This differentiated demand will encourage manufacturers to launch targeted products in different price segments to meet the needs of various consumer groups. The report also points out that the proportion of consumers prioritizing stability and frugality will increase, further supporting this trend.

V. Expanding Used Smartphone Market, Accelerated Overseas Expansion by Manufacturers

IDC estimates that the market size of used smartphones (including refurbished phones) in China will approach 100 million units in 2025. This indicates that the used smartphone market is becoming a force to be reckoned with. The used smartphone market, on the one hand, meets the demand for low-priced phones from some consumers, and on the other hand, contributes positively to environmental protection and resource recycling.

Furthermore, the overseas expansion of Chinese smartphone manufacturers will accelerate. With increasingly fierce competition in the domestic market and growing global recognition of Chinese smartphone brands, Chinese manufacturers will further expand their efforts in overseas markets to seek new growth points.

Conclusion: Opportunities and Challenges Coexist

IDC's Top 10 insights into China's smartphone market in 2025 portray a vibrant and dynamic market. Steady overall market growth, rapid growth in the AI phone market, diversified ecosystems, and price differentiation all present new opportunities for the Chinese smartphone industry. However, challenges such as data security, market competition, and overseas market expansion require manufacturers to actively respond. Only by embracing change and continuously innovating can they remain competitive in the future. In the next few years, China's smartphone market will continue to maintain its global leading position, while also undergoing profound changes and transformation.