China's Smartphone Market in 2025: Accelerating Premiumization and the Rise of Foldable Phones

China's Smartphone Market in 2025: Accelerating Premiumization and the Rise of Foldable PhonesSeveral research firms, including Counterpoint Research and IDC, have recently released reports predicting the trends in China's smartphone market in 2025, pointing to a clear signal: accelerated premiumization and a continuously evolving market landscape.

China's Smartphone Market in 2025: Accelerating Premiumization and the Rise of Foldable Phones

Several research firms, including Counterpoint Research and IDC, have recently released reports predicting the trends in China's smartphone market in 2025, pointing to a clear signal: accelerated premiumization and a continuously evolving market landscape.

Counterpoint Research's report shows that in the first half of 2024, the segment of the Chinese smartphone market exceeding $600 (approximately 4338 RMB) saw year-on-year sales growth of 8%, significantly outpacing the overall market's 4% growth. This strongly confirms the robust growth of the high-end smartphone market and foreshadows intensified future competition.

IDC's report provides a more comprehensive forecast for the Chinese smartphone market in 2025. It predicts shipments of 289 million units, representing a 1.6% year-on-year increase, suggesting relatively stable shipment volumes in the coming years. While growth is slowing, the overall market size remains substantial, harboring significant potential. Importantly, IDC forecasts the average price of smartphones in China to surpass 4000 RMB in 2025, further supporting the acceleration of the premiumization trend.

IDC's report provides detailed segment data. It predicts that the market share of smartphones priced above $600 (approximately 4338 RMB) will reach 30.9% in 2025, a 2.1% year-on-year increase. This indicates a continuous expansion of the high-end market's share, making it a key battleground for manufacturers. Simultaneously, the market share of smartphones priced below $200 (approximately 1430 RMB) is also expected to grow by 2.1%, reaching 31.5%, demonstrating the enduring presence of a sizable consumer base in the low-end segment.

However, a noteworthy trend is the contraction of the $200-$400 (approximately 1430-2860 RMB) price segment, projected to shrink by 4.2 percentage points to 28.0%. This suggests that the mid-range market is facing increasing pressure due to premiumization, forcing manufacturers to reposition their product strategies to survive.

Foldable phones, a crucial component of the high-end market, are also attracting significant attention. IDC predicts shipments of around 10 million units in 2025, representing an 8.3% year-on-year increase. This indicates rapid growth, positioning foldable phones as a potential major force in the high-end segment. However, their high price remains a barrier to wider adoption, presenting ongoing challenges.

Competition in China's smartphone market is intensifying, with manufacturers focusing on the high-end segment to protect their interests. This trend significantly impacts international giants like Apple. Domestic manufacturers, leveraging advantages in technology, supply chains, and market understanding, are aggressively vying for high-end market share, posing a strong challenge to Apple. This competition extends beyond hardware specifications and innovative technologies to encompass brand building, user experience enhancement, and ecosystem development.

In summary, the Chinese smartphone market in 2025 will be characterized by accelerating premiumization, a reshaped market landscape, and the emergence of foldable phones. The high-end market will become a fiercely contested arena, while the mid-range market faces unprecedented challenges. Manufacturers must adapt their strategies to market changes to thrive. Consumers will benefit from a wider variety of choices and enhanced mobile experiences driven by technological advancements. This intensified competition will fuel innovation and a greater focus on user experience, ultimately benefiting the entire industry and consumers. This market, full of opportunities and challenges, warrants continued observation, with its development significantly impacting the global smartphone industry. The growing consumer demand for premium phones drives manufacturers to continuously upgrade product technology and user experience, leading industry innovation. This positive competitive cycle will further enhance the international competitiveness of China's smartphone industry.