Global Market Fluctuation: Divergence in US Tech Stocks, Mixed Performance of Chinese Stocks, and Interpretation of Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Data

Global Market Fluctuation: Divergence in US Tech Stocks, Mixed Performance of Chinese Stocks, and Interpretation of Geopolitical and Macroeconomic DataDecember 19, 2024 saw global markets exhibiting a fluctuating trend. The three major US stock indices saw mixed results, with technology stocks showing divergence, while Chinese stocks traded mixed as well

Global Market Fluctuation: Divergence in US Tech Stocks, Mixed Performance of Chinese Stocks, and Interpretation of Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Data

December 19, 2024 saw global markets exhibiting a fluctuating trend. The three major US stock indices saw mixed results, with technology stocks showing divergence, while Chinese stocks traded mixed as well. On the geopolitical front, ceasefire negotiations in Gaza showed progress, but geopolitical risks remain. Macroeconomic data revealed better-than-expected US economic figures, but European markets collectively declined, indicating that the path to global economic recovery remains challenging. Furthermore, China strengthened its regulation of financial markets and online marketing, with several companies issuing important announcements that drew market attention. This article provides an in-depth interpretation of the main global market dynamics of the day.

I. US Stock Market: Divergence in Tech Stocks, Dow Ends Ten-Day Losing Streak

Overnight, the three major US stock indices saw mixed results. The Nasdaq fell 0.1%, the S&P 500 fell 0.09%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.04%, ending a ten-day losing streak. Large technology stocks showed divergence. Nvidia, Netflix, and Amazon saw their share prices rise by over 1%, and Google and Apple saw modest gains; however, Intel's share price fell by over 1%, and Tesla, Microsoft, and Meta saw slight declines. Notably, Micron Technology's share price plummeted by over 16% due to its second-quarter earnings guidance falling short of market expectations, sparking investor concern. The volatility in the US stock market reflects investor uncertainty about the future economic outlook and the development of the technology sector. The Dow's recovery may suggest a warming of market sentiment, but the divergent performance of technology stocks indicates structural disagreements within the market.

II. Chinese Stock Market (US-listed): Mixed Performance, Significant Individual Stock Variations

The Chinese stock market (US-listed) also showed a mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling slightly by 0.06%. Individual stocks showed significant variations. Baidu and Fangdd Soufun's share prices fell by over 3%, and DouYu's fell by over 2%; however, Li Auto and New Oriental's share prices rose by over 2%. The fluctuations in Chinese stocks are closely related to US-China relations, the domestic policy environment, and the companies' own performance. Some companies with strong performance saw positive stock performance, while others faced challenges and saw their stock prices under pressure. The future trend of Chinese stocks will largely depend on the macroeconomic environment, geopolitical risks, and the direction of relevant policies.

III. Macroeconomic Data: Positive US Economic Data, Challenges for the European Economy

The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 220,000, lower than the expected 230,000 and the previous value of 242,000, indicating that the US labor market remains strong. The final annualized growth rate of US GDP for the third quarter was 3.1%, higher than the expected 2.8% and the revised value of 2.8%, indicating stronger-than-expected US economic growth and injecting some confidence into the market. However, major European indices collectively closed lower, with the German DAX 30 index falling 1.39%, the UK FTSE 100 index falling 1.17%, the French CAC 40 index falling 1.22%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index falling 1.58%. This reflects the greater downward pressure on the European economy. The uncertainty of global economic recovery is one of the important factors affecting market sentiment.

IV. International Market: Progress in Gaza Ceasefire Negotiations, Geopolitical Risks Remain

Significant progress has been made in ceasefire negotiations in Gaza, with both sides discussing a two-phase agreement. The first phase, lasting 42 days, involves prisoner exchanges; the second phase focuses on Israeli withdrawal and a formal ceasefire announcement. Despite the progress in ceasefire negotiations, geopolitical risks remain, and the situation in the Middle East remains complex, which will continue to affect global markets. Furthermore, Russian President Putin stated that the situation in the war zone is undergoing a significant transformation, and the Russian army is moving towards achieving its main objectives. This statement also heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

V. Chinese Market: Strengthened Regulation, Multiple Policies Introduced

Yi Huiman, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), met with Ashley Alder, chairman of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC), and Julia Leung, the SFC's CEO. They exchanged views on further optimizing and improving the Stock Connect mechanism and promoting coordinated development of the two capital markets, indicating further deepening of cooperation between the mainland China and Hong Kong capital markets. Simultaneously, Chinese regulatory authorities strengthened supervision of the financial markets. The "Management Measures for Online Marketing of Financial Products" is expected to be released soon. It covers the online marketing of various financial products, including deposits, loans, asset management products, insurance, and payments, aiming to regulate online marketing practices and protect consumer rights. Multiple provincial-level securities regulatory bureaus strengthened management of public statements by securities analysts and others, regulating information disclosure and maintaining market order. The introduction of these policies will have a profound impact on the Chinese capital market and financial sector.

VI. Company News: Multiple Companies Released Important Announcements, Market Reactions Varied

The US is considering banning the sale of TP-Link routers, and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that it will take resolute measures to protect the rights and interests of Chinese companies, reflecting the ongoing tension in US-China trade friction. The fifth round of national centralized procurement of high-value medical consumables opened for bidding, with the average price of a single artificial cochlea expected to drop to around 50,000 yuan, significantly reducing the medical burden on patients. A social media influencer with 5 million followers was penalized for tax evasion, again warning online broadcasters to strengthen their tax compliance awareness. Wu Wei, former secretary of the CPC Liuzhou Municipal Committee, was sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve for bribery and abuse of power, again emphasizing the determination to fight corruption.

VII. Emerging Technologies: Continued Boom in AI Development, Intense Competition Among Companies

China Data United Logistics was established in Shanghai, becoming the first state-owned enterprise in data technology, signifying the further increase in national attention to the development of the data technology industry. Ant Group denied rumors of a backdoor listing, indicating that it has no immediate plans to go public. Xiaomi responded to rumors of poaching Tesla China's "factory director," emphasizing its own team's strength. WeChat launched a new "send gifts" feature, providing users with more convenient services. ByteDance warned investors to beware of speculation related to "Doubao concept stocks," maintaining market order. Databricks completed an $8.6 billion J-round financing, becoming the largest venture capital deal of the year, showing the high degree of attention paid by the capital market to AI data analysis platforms. Apple is reportedly in talks with Tencent and ByteDance to integrate their AI models into iPhones sold in China, suggesting that cooperation among technology giants may become a trend, driving industry innovation.

VIII. Other News

Jiyue Auto announced an employee compensation plan, showing that companies need to properly handle employee issues when dealing with change. The year-end ranking battle among private equity funds has begun, with products managed by Dan Bin of Oriental Harbour leading the pack among hundreds of billions of private equity funds. China Film Group Corporation (CFG) issued a statement reminding investors to be wary of fraudulent financing activities using the company's name.

IX. Conclusion

December 19, 2024, saw a complex and volatile global market. US tech stocks diverged, Chinese stocks performed mixed, European markets fell, and international tensions remained. China strengthened market regulation, introducing multiple policies to promote standardized development. Competition in the emerging technology sector intensified, with AI development remaining robust. Investors need to closely monitor global macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical risks, and relevant policy changes and make investment decisions cautiously.

(Data as of 4:30 AM Beijing time. The information in this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk.)