Foldable Phone Development Hits a Snag: Slowdown in China's Market, and What Lies Ahead?

Foldable Phone Development Hits a Snag: Slowdown in China's Market, and What Lies Ahead?Foldable phones were once touted as the future of smartphones, but reality has been less glamorous. The sector is currently facing a significant bottleneck, and it's not an exaggeration

Foldable Phone Development Hits a Snag: Slowdown in China's Market, and What Lies Ahead?

Foldable phones were once touted as the future of smartphones, but reality has been less glamorous. The sector is currently facing a significant bottleneck, and it's not an exaggeration. Data from Counterpoint Research, a leading market analysis firm, reveals that while China remains the world's largest market for foldable phones, accounting for over half of global shipments, its growth rate is slowing dramatically. In 2024, China's foldable phone market is projected to reach 9.1 million units, representing a mere 2% year-on-year growth.

This marks the first time China's foldable phone market has experienced single-digit growth. Historically, the domestic market enjoyed double-digit, and often triple-digit, year-on-year growth rates. For instance, growth reached 103% in 2023 and a staggering 191% in 2022. The 2% growth rate in 2024, however, serves as a wake-up call, clearly indicating a bottleneck in the domestic foldable phone market.

To overcome this hurdle, major Chinese foldable phone brands are accelerating innovation and exploring usage scenarios that better meet consumer needs. Counterpoint Research also notes that in the Chinese market, large, horizontally folding phones significantly outperform smaller, vertically folding ones. This is evidenced by vivo and OPPO, which have both reportedly paused development of vertically folding phones. However, exceptions exist. This year, Xiaomi's MIX Flip, with its outstanding design, stood out in the Chinese market, becoming one of the most popular vertically folding phones and surprising the industry.

Despite this, Huawei remains the dominant player in the overall Chinese foldable phone market, holding over half of the market share. Huawei's strong push into tri-foldable phones and the launch of the Mate X6 further solidified its position.

Huawei's success serves as a stark warning to other brands. For non-Huawei foldable phone manufacturers, repositioning has become paramount. The foldable phone market isn't simply a matter of "build it and they will come." It requires continuous innovation and a precise understanding of user pain points. Currently, aside from Huawei, other brands haven't yet found a successful formula.

Counterpoint Research's data supports this. The 2% year-on-year growth rate, a far cry from the previous triple-digit figures, indicates market saturation and a decline in consumer acceptance and purchase intent for existing foldable phones. This reflects several underlying issues, including the high price point, an imperfect software ecosystem, and unresolved challenges with battery life and other key technologies all directly impacting consumer purchasing decisions.

The high price is a major barrier to wider adoption. Foldable phones are significantly more expensive than traditional smartphones, making them inaccessible to many consumers. Even those willing to pay a premium for innovative technology may opt for more affordable alternatives.

Software ecosystem maturity is also crucial. The different screen format of foldable phones requires targeted software optimization to leverage their advantages. An inadequate software ecosystem and poor app compatibility significantly detract from the user experience and hinder market acceptance.

Battery life remains a weakness. Larger screens in foldable phones lead to higher power consumption and generally shorter battery life compared to traditional smartphones a critical concern for many users.

Durability is another key concern. The complex hinge mechanism in foldable phones is prone to malfunctions. Concerns about potentially high repair costs can deter potential buyers.

To overcome these bottlenecks, foldable phone manufacturers need to focus on: lowering prices and improving value; improving the software ecosystem and user experience; enhancing R&D to improve battery life and durability; and actively exploring new applications to meet broader user needs. Only then can foldable phones truly become mainstream.

In conclusion, the slowdown in China's foldable phone market serves as a wake-up call for the entire industry. Manufacturers need to reflect critically and actively seek breakthroughs to survive in this intensely competitive market. The future trajectory of foldable phones will depend on manufacturers' ability to achieve breakthroughs in technological innovation, user experience, and market positioning. In a market dominated by Huawei, other brands need to find their differentiating strategies to capitalize on opportunities and achieve sustainable growth. This requires a deeper understanding of user needs and continuous technological innovation than ever before. Only then can foldable phones truly realize their potential as the future of smartphones.