2024: Ten Numbers That Defined a Year of Global Economic and Financial Market Turmoil

2024: Ten Numbers That Defined a Year of Global Economic and Financial Market Turmoil2024 witnessed dramatic volatility and unprecedented transformations in the global economy and financial markets. The meteoric rise of cryptocurrencies, breakthroughs in the tech sector, and profound reshaping of traditional industries combined to create a year fraught with uncertainty and challenges

2024: Ten Numbers That Defined a Year of Global Economic and Financial Market Turmoil

2024 witnessed dramatic volatility and unprecedented transformations in the global economy and financial markets. The meteoric rise of cryptocurrencies, breakthroughs in the tech sector, and profound reshaping of traditional industries combined to create a year fraught with uncertainty and challenges. This article reviews 2024's most impactful financial news through ten key numbers, delving into their underlying economic and social significance.

I. Nasdaq's Historic Breach of 20,000: A Tech Stock Extravaganza

On December 11th, the Nasdaq Composite Index historically surpassed the 20,000 mark, accumulating a nearly 32% year-to-date gain. The surge in artificial intelligence (AI) and market anticipation of lower interest rates fueled investor enthusiasm for tech stocks, driving the Nasdaq to remarkable annual growth. Notably, early in the year, Dan Ives, a star analyst at Wedbush Securities, boldly predicted a further 25% increase in US tech stocks in 2024, forecasting a Nasdaq push towards 20,000. This prediction materialized, demonstrating AI's significant impact on market sentiment. The strong performance of tech stocks reflects investor confidence in future technological innovation and optimistic expectations for economic growth driven by emerging technologies like AI and big data. However, the sustainability of this optimism and the potential risks posed by the high valuations of tech stocks require continued monitoring.

II. Bitcoin Breaks $100,000: Continued Volatility in the Cryptocurrency Market

On December 5th, Bitcoin's price exceeded $100,000 for the first time, peaking at $108,000. This milestone underscored the volatility and risk inherent in the cryptocurrency market, sparking intense debate about Bitcoin's future trajectory. The market generally attributed Bitcoin's surge to the political stance of former US President Trump. During his campaign, Trump repeatedly expressed support for Bitcoin, promising to establish a "national strategic Bitcoin reserve" and nominating several Bitcoin supporters for key positions in his next administration, including Paul Atkins for SEC Chair, replacing the crypto-cautious Gary Gensler. These actions injected strong positive sentiment into the Bitcoin market, driving prices higher. However, Bitcoin's value remains subject to numerous factors, including regulatory policies, technological developments, and market speculation. Its price volatility remains significant, demanding caution from investors.

III. Trump's Tariffs: A Return to Protectionism?

Former US President Trump announced on social media that he would sign a series of executive orders upon taking office in January, including a 25% tariff on all Mexican and Canadian goods entering the US. This sparked global market concerns about a resurgence of protectionism and potential trade conflicts. The Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) Institute of Developing Economies (IDE) projected that, compared to a scenario without tariffs, US GDP would decline by 1.1%, with mining and agriculture experiencing even steeper declines of 1.5%, indicating a more severe impact. This prediction highlights the negative impact of trade protectionism on global economic growth. Tariffs increase goods prices, disrupt global supply chains, and can provoke retaliatory measures, ultimately harming the economic interests of all participating countries. Global economic integration is an undeniable trend, and any protectionist policies that buck this trend will come at a high cost.

IV. Musk's $56 Billion "Pay Dispute": Executive Compensation Sparks Controversy

Earlier this month, a Delaware court again rejected Tesla's massive compensation package for CEO Elon Musk. Initially approved in 2018 at an estimated $2.6 billion, the package ballooned to $56 billion by the time the judge annulled it. Musk responded stating, "Companies should be controlled by shareholders, not judges." The failure of Musk's enormous compensation plan sparked widespread discussion about the relationship between executive compensation and company performance. Some argue that high executive pay is disproportionate to their contributions, harming shareholder interests; others contend that high salaries incentivize executives to create greater company value. This event highlights the importance of corporate governance and shareholder rights, and the challenge of incentivizing executives while protecting shareholder interests a topic deserving further discussion.

V. Ford's $130,000 Loss Per Electric Vehicle: Challenges in the EV Transition

On April 24th, Ford reported its 2024 first-quarter results, revealing that its electric vehicle division, "Modele," sold only 10,000 vehicles, incurring a $1.3 billion loss an average of $132,000 per vehicle severely impacting overall company profitability. Slowed demand resulted in lower-than-expected sales, leading several European and American automakers to cut or postpone electric vehicle production targets. This suggests that the transition from gasoline to electric vehicles may take longer than anticipated. The electric vehicle industry faces numerous challenges, including battery technology, charging infrastructure, consumer acceptance, and raw material costs. Ford's losses serve as a warning to automakers: the electric vehicle transition is not immediate; it necessitates long-term strategic planning and technological breakthroughs.

VI. Record $39.1 Billion Inflow into Chinese Equity Funds: Stimulus Measures Boost Market Confidence

In late September, China announced a package of stimulus measures, effectively boosting market confidence. Data from EPFRGlobal showed that in the week ending October 9th, investors poured a record $39.1 billion into Chinese equity funds. Hedge fund legend David Tepper stated on a program, "I didn't expect them to pull out that kind of a punch. That's a complete change." When asked what Chinese assets he bought, he replied, "Everything. I'll buy ETFs, I'll buy futures, everything." This massive inflow of funds reflects international investor confidence in China's economic recovery. The Chinese government's stimulus policies positively impacted market sentiment, though their long-term effects remain to be seen. The future development of the Chinese economy still faces considerable uncertainties.

VII. First Commercial Spacewalk: The Dawn of Space Tourism

On September 11th (EDT), the "Polaris Dawn" mission team launched aboard a SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft, reaching an orbit approximately 1400 kilometers from Earth, surpassing the approximately 1370-kilometer record set by the 1966 Gemini mission. Four astronauts conducted a spacewalk, testing spacesuit performance in a space vacuum. Significantly, all four passengers were non-professional astronauts. This event marks a new milestone for commercial space tourism. With technological advancements and decreasing costs, space tourism could become a new leisure activity, creating new economic opportunities. However, the safety and sustainability of space tourism require further attention.

VIII. US Fiscal Year Deficit Reaches $1.8 Trillion: Mounting National Debt

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the US federal government's budget deficit reached $1.8 trillion in the fiscal year ending September 30th, 2024, a $139 billion increase from FY2023 and the highest level outside of the COVID-19 pandemic. This fiscal gap represents 6.4% of US GDP, and this massive deficit is the primary driver of the increase in the total US federal debt. Data released by the US Treasury on November 24th showed that the total federal debt reached $36.035 trillion, an all-time high. The US's massive fiscal deficit and soaring debt raise concerns about the long-term stability of the US economy. High debt could lead to inflation and increase the fragility of the US economy. Controlling the deficit and reducing debt levels will be a major challenge for the US government.

IX. Japan's Births May Fall Below 700,000: Intensifying Population Aging

Data released by Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare in November showed that the number of newborns in the first half of the year fell by 6.3% year-on-year to 329,998, suggesting that the annual birth count may fall below 700,000 for the first time. Japan's total fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.2 in 2023. Simultaneously, South Korea's total fertility rate plummeted to a record low of 0.72 in 2023. On June 19th, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol declared a "population emergency" and pledged national efforts to address the issue of low birth rates. The low birth rates in Japan and South Korea highlight the severe challenges posed by population aging and labor shortages in developed countries. Population decline will have profound implications for economic growth, social security systems, and national development strategies. Addressing population aging will be a long-term and complex challenge for these nations.

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