The 2025 Mobile Phone Market: Five Transformative Trends

The 2025 Mobile Phone Market: Five Transformative TrendsThe 2024 mobile phone market experienced significant turbulence. Breakthroughs in AI technology propelled mobile experiences into a new era of intelligence, while the rise of straight-screen and smaller phones offered consumers greater choice

The 2025 Mobile Phone Market: Five Transformative Trends

The 2024 mobile phone market experienced significant turbulence. Breakthroughs in AI technology propelled mobile experiences into a new era of intelligence, while the rise of straight-screen and smaller phones offered consumers greater choice. Major brands engaged in fierce technological competition, with new technologies spawning countless new features and experiences. Looking ahead to 2025, after a brief lull, the market is expected to rebound strongly following the Mobile World Congress (MWC). This article delves into five key events that could trigger major changes in the 2025 mobile phone market.

I. Apple iPhone SE4: The Debut of Apple's Self-Developed Modem and the Sales Challenge

Apple's performance in the Chinese market in 2024 was a rollercoaster. Initial sales suffered a setback, followed by a rapid recovery through price cuts, only to plummet again at the year's end. To address this, Apple needs further measures, such as continued price reductions or new product launches, to revitalize sales. Given the distant release of the iPhone 17 series, the iPhone SE4 presents an attractive option. The SE series' low-price strategy facilitates large-scale shipments, meeting market demand for cost-effective products.

However, the success of the iPhone SE4 remains uncertain. While the device will feature significant upgrades in design and configuration, and will be the first to incorporate Apple's self-developed 5G modem, the market remains cautious about its performance. Reports suggest that the performance of Apple's self-developed 5G modem is far inferior to Qualcomm's, with downlink speeds only 40% of Qualcomm's and lacking millimeter-wave support. This contrasts sharply with the expectations of many Apple fans.

Apple's initial goal in developing its own modem wasn't to achieve ultimate performance, but rather to reduce reliance on Qualcomm and lower costs. Therefore, performance isn't the primary concern; meeting basic usage needs is sufficient. However, even with Qualcomm modems, Apple phones haven't effectively addressed signal issues, making the performance shortcomings of the self-developed modem even more concerning.

Furthermore, whether the iPhone SE4 itself can significantly boost sales is questionable. While a larger screen size is a highlight, it loses the original small-screen characteristic of the SE series, and a price increase is likely. Instead of relying on the iPhone SE4 to boost sales, Apple might consider offering price reductions on the iPhone 16 series and leveraging government subsidies to stimulate market demand.

II. Intensified Competition in the Mid-Range Market: A Balancing Act Between Chip Technology and Cost Control

With the launch of the iPhone SE4, a large number of mid-range phones are expected to hit the market simultaneously. These phones, priced around 1,000-2,000 RMB, are highly competitive, and combined with government subsidies, opting for mid-range models with larger storage will be a very affordable choice.

The mid-range market is well-prepared in terms of supply chain, especially for processors. MediaTek's Dimensity 8400 series chips have been launched, and Qualcomm's Snapdragon 8s and Snapdragon 7+ series chips are imminent. Together with previous-generation flagship chips, the mid-range market will showcase a diverse range of offerings.

However, mid-range phone prices are directly constrained by costs. The upward trend in high-end phone prices will inevitably impact the mid-range market. Fingerprint recognition, screens, and quality will all affect the actual user experience, making the choice of a suitable phone crucial. Fortunately, the mid-range market offers numerous models, allowing consumers to find the perfect fit.

III. Rapid Development of Smartphone Battery Capacity: The 7000mAh Era Arrives

In 2024, smartphone battery capacities increased significantly. Consumer expectations jumped from 5000mAh to 6000mAh, making long battery life a standard feature for new phones. This trend will continue into 2025. Phones with 7000mAh batteries, such as the Red Magic 10 Pro and Realme Neo7, have already emerged. Predictably, large batteries will become mainstream in 2025, and 7000mAh will not be the ultimate target.

IV. Widespread Deployment of Huawei's 5G Chips: The Path to Regaining Glory

Huawei's return to the market was the biggest variable in the Chinese mobile phone market in 2024. Huawei's strong comeback intensified domestic competition, making it difficult for brands to differentiate themselves. In the high-end market, Huawei and Apple are locked in fierce competition. However, globally, Huawei's market share is far from its peak.

For Huawei to regain its dominance, chip production capacity is key. Huawei phones have now fully recovered and all use Kirin chips, covering the entire product range from low-end to high-end. This undeniably presents a huge challenge to Huawei's chip production capacity. To achieve an annual shipment target of 200 million units, Huawei must first ensure sufficient stock.

V. Satellite Internet Functionality Deployment: Towards a Seamless Connectivity Era

The Huawei Mate X6 Collector's Edition announced support for low-orbit satellite internet functionality, with public testing expected to begin in the second half of 2025. This will allow data network usage via satellite, a significant leap from the current satellite communication functions limited to messaging and calls. Low-orbit satellites can enable satellite internet access, providing the same user experience as with ground base stations, even in areas without signal.

Besides Huawei, other brands are actively promoting satellite internet functionality; for example, the OPPO Find X8 Ultra already utilizes the TianTong-1 satellite for satellite internet access. It's certain that satellite communication functionality in smartphones will continue to improve in 2025, bringing the truly seamless connectivity experience closer to reality.

In conclusion, analysis of these five trends reveals that the 2025 mobile phone market will be full of opportunities and challenges. Technological innovation, market competition, and consumer demand will jointly shape the future development landscape of the mobile phone market. Innovation will continue to drive upgrades in mobile experiences, while market competition will push for a balance between price and performance. Ultimately, consumers will benefit from more choices and better product experiences.