Tesla: Beyond Fundamentals, Towards a "Bitcoinized" Future?

Tesla: Beyond Fundamentals, Towards a "Bitcoinized" Future?Tesla's lofty valuation has long been a subject of debate. However, with its stock price continuing to climb, pushing short-sellers to despair, the market seems to be increasingly abandoning fundamental analysis in its valuation

Tesla: Beyond Fundamentals, Towards a "Bitcoinized" Future?

Tesla's lofty valuation has long been a subject of debate. However, with its stock price continuing to climb, pushing short-sellers to despair, the market seems to be increasingly abandoning fundamental analysis in its valuation. In a recent report released on January 30th, Barclays senior analyst Dan Levy noted that despite Tesla's Q4 2024 results falling short of expectations, its ambitious vision in autonomous driving and artificial intelligence, coupled with its powerful narrative, has resulted in extraordinary market leniency towards its underwhelming short-term performance. Levy suggests this phenomenon is reminiscent of Bitcoin, arguing that Tesla is becoming increasingly "Bitcoinized," with its stock price showing a weakening correlation to fundamentals and becoming more driven by market sentiment and grand narratives.

Super Narratives and a 120x P/E Ratio: The Invisible Support Behind Declining Performance

Tesla's Q4 2024 performance was underwhelming, with its automotive gross margin falling to a seven-year low, significantly below market expectations. Surprisingly, Tesla's stock price wasn't significantly impacted. Barclays attributes this primarily to Tesla's ambitious plans in autonomous driving and AI, which have captured market attention and fostered investor tolerance for short-term volatility.

The Barclays report states: "Tesla's current P/E ratio of 120 reflects investors' extremely high expectations for future growth." This indicates that Tesla's stock price heavily relies on the influence of its founder, Elon Musk, and the company's strong narrative. Tesla now resembles a "meme stock," driven by various technical factors such as options trading, quantitative trading, and momentum investing, sharing striking similarities with Bitcoin's market behavior.

Narrative One: Robotaxi The Autonomous Future and Real-World Challenges

Tesla's progress in autonomous driving is a key focus of the Barclays report. The report highlights Tesla's plan to launch its Robotaxi service in Austin in June 2025 and expand its unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology to multiple US cities by the end of the year. This demonstrates Tesla's rapid advancement in autonomous driving but also raises concerns about the technology's feasibility and regulatory hurdles.

Barclays analyst Dan Levy stated: "Tesla's Robotaxi pilot program will utilize Tesla's own vehicles, providing an Uber-like autonomous ride-hailing service." Successful implementation would create a new revenue stream for Tesla and further solidify its leadership in autonomous driving. However, Levy also cautions investors that the application of Tesla's unsupervised FSD technology in consumer vehicles might face greater challenges, especially in regions with stricter regulatory environments.

Furthermore, Tesla plans to launch a more affordable "Model 2.5" in 2025 to expand its market share. Levy believes this will help Tesla maintain its edge in the competitive electric vehicle market but could also put pressure on its profit margins.

Narrative Two: Optimus Robot AI Ambitions and Challenges

Beyond autonomous driving, Tesla's Optimus robot project is a crucial component of its future growth. The report indicates Tesla plans to produce thousands of Optimus robots in 2025, deploying them in Tesla factories to perform "boring, dangerous, repetitive" tasks. Success would provide a new revenue stream and enhance its competitiveness in the AI field.

Barclays analyst Dan Levy stated: "Optimus has enormous long-term potential, but its commercialization path remains uncertain." Although Optimus production is in its initial phase, mass production and market rollout still face numerous challenges. Tesla plans to launch the Optimus V2 in 2026 and gradually scale up production. Levy projects Optimus's ultimate goal is to achieve monthly production of 100,000 units and global expansion.

Grand Vision: Growth Potential and Uncertainty Coexist

Barclays believes Tesla's stock price heavily relies on Elon Musk's influence and the company's narrative. Tesla's market performance mirrors Bitcoin's, and this "Bitcoinization" is weakening the correlation between its stock price and fundamentals, making it more susceptible to market sentiment and narratives.

Levy stated: "When Tesla gives you a super narrative, who cares about the forecast?" This narrative power allows the market to be relatively tolerant of Tesla's short-term performance fluctuations. Despite Tesla's poor Q4 2024 results, its ambitious plans in autonomous driving and AI have captured market attention, inspiring investor confidence in its future.

Levy also stated: "Tesla's future plans are ambitious, but its technological breakthroughs and commercial applications still face many uncertainties." Investors need to closely monitor Tesla's progress in autonomous driving and AI and its market competitiveness.

Conclusion: Cautious Assessment, Rational Investment

Although Tesla's current stock price is detached from fundamentals, its powerful narrative and technological innovation still offer significant growth potential. Barclays believes Tesla's continuous innovation and market leadership will maintain its competitive advantage. While facing numerous challenges, Tesla's leading position in electric vehicles and autonomous driving equips it to handle market changes. Investors should cautiously assess Tesla's short-term volatility and long-term potential to make informed investment decisions. Tesla's future is full of both opportunities and risks; investors need to remain clear-headed, analyze carefully, and invest rationally. Tesla's story may continue to unfold, but its ending remains unknown.