Foldable Phone Market Forecast (2024-2026): A Cycle of Slowdown, Recession, and Recovery

Foldable Phone Market Forecast (2024-2026): A Cycle of Slowdown, Recession, and RecoveryAccording to a report by Counterpoint Research, the global foldable smartphone shipment growth rate will slow significantly in 2024, reaching only 2.9%

Foldable Phone Market Forecast (2024-2026): A Cycle of Slowdown, Recession, and Recovery

According to a report by Counterpoint Research, the global foldable smartphone shipment growth rate will slow significantly in 2024, reaching only 2.9%. This contrasts sharply with the double-digit or even triple-digit growth achieved by some manufacturers. The report attributes this slowdown partly to the underperformance of major players like Samsung in Q4 2024, impacted by geopolitical uncertainties. This deceleration signals a transition from rapid growth to a more stable development phase for the foldable phone market.

Counterpoint Research further predicts a more challenging 2025, forecasting a single-digit decline the first-ever year-over-year contraction for the foldable phone market. Senior Analyst Jene Park explains that currently, there are no apparent positive factors to drive market growth in 2025, making the negative growth prediction a realistic assessment of the current market conditions. This downturn, however, doesn't indicate market saturation but rather a necessary adjustment period laying the groundwork for future recovery.

This adjustment period is characterized by intensified competition and increasingly rational consumer demand. The initial high growth stemmed from the novelty of the form factor and technology, boosted by early adopters. However, with technological maturity and price reductions, competition has intensified, and consumers are demanding higher performance, better pricing, and greater practicality. This leads to slower growth, or even decline, for some manufacturers. Simultaneously, the market is segmenting, with different foldable types (inward, outward folding, varying screen sizes) catering to diverse needs, further driving market adjustment and optimization.

However, Counterpoint Research's report also offers a positive outlook for the future. 2026 is projected as a turning point, driven by two key factors: Apple's anticipated entry into the foldable market and the resurgence of clamshell foldables. Apple's involvement, as the world's largest smartphone manufacturer, will significantly boost market attention and competition, driving innovation and broader adoption. The comeback of clamshell foldables adds further dynamism, appealing to consumers with their compact and portable designs.

Counterpoint Research's latest "Foldable & Rollable Display Panel Shipment & Technology Report" corroborates this optimistic forecast, showing double-digit growth in foldable panel orders for 2026. Research Director Calvin Lee emphasizes that this doesn't signal market saturation, but rather an impending transformation. This proactive supply chain investment reflects market players' confidence in future growth and their readiness for new opportunities and challenges.

In summary, Counterpoint Research's analysis depicts the 2024-2026 foldable phone market as a cyclical fluctuation of slowdown, recession, and recovery. 2024 witnesses a slowdown, influenced by underperforming manufacturers and geopolitical uncertainties. 2025 is projected to see the first decline, a necessary market adjustment. However, 2026, with Apple's entry and the return of clamshell foldables, promises new growth drivers and market resurgence.

This cyclical pattern mirrors the development of other emerging technologies. Initially, there's rapid growth, followed by a slowdown and potential temporary decline as the market matures and competition intensifies. However, with continued innovation and sustained demand, these products eventually break through after market adjustments.

Foldable phones follow this pattern. Technology continues to improve, prices are falling, and applications are expanding all strong foundations for long-term growth. Thus, while 2025 may see negative growth, it doesn't signal the end, but rather a temporary adjustment, preparing the market for future recovery and sustained development. Apple's entry and the resurgence of clamshell foldables are key factors driving the 2026 recovery, ushering in a new phase of market development.

In the long term, foldable phones will become a significant segment of the smartphone market, offering enhanced user experiences. The current market adjustment is merely a necessary phase in this process. Continued technological innovation and market expansion will ultimately determine the foldable phone market's trajectory. Therefore, a cautiously optimistic outlook for the future is warranted.