The foldable phone market: Slow growth in 2024, potential boom in 2026

The foldable phone market: Slow growth in 2024, potential boom in 2026A report from Counterpoint Research, as covered by the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily on February 2nd, predicts a mere 2.9% growth in global foldable phone shipments in 2024 compared to 2023

The foldable phone market: Slow growth in 2024, potential boom in 2026

• A report from Counterpoint Research, as covered by the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily on February 2nd, predicts a mere 2.9% growth in global foldable phone shipments in 2024 compared to 2023. This is significantly lower than previous expectations. Weak sales from Samsung and OPPO in the fourth quarter of 2023 significantly impacted overall market growth, leading Counterpoint Research to revise its forecast to a 4% decline in 2024.

This revised prediction stems primarily from the underwhelming performance of Samsung and OPPO in Q4 2023. These companies have been long-time leaders in the foldable phone market, and their sales directly influence the overall market trend. While 2023 saw overall growth in the foldable phone market, the Q4 decline signals weakening momentum. Increasing market competition, coupled with consumers' growing price sensitivity and focus on product performance, contributed to the sales fluctuations.

Counterpoint Research attributes the projected 2024 market slowdown to several factors. Firstly, the high price point of premium foldable phones restricts market penetration. Secondly, concerns about durability and reliability persist among some consumers. Finally, a lack of killer applications hinders mainstream adoption.

Despite this, Counterpoint Research remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of the foldable phone market. The anticipated launch of Apple's first foldable phone, along with new-generation foldable devices from other manufacturers, is expected to revitalize the market and drive growth. Apple's entry, in particular, will significantly boost market attention and consumer acceptance, expanding market size.

Therefore, Counterpoint Research predicts strong growth in global foldable phone shipments in 2026. By then, technological maturity, price reductions, and the emergence of more innovative applications will collectively propel the foldable phone market into a new phase of development. The slowdown in 2024 is viewed as a temporary adjustment, not indicative of the long-term positive trend. The market needs time to clear existing inventory and await the stimulus of new products before experiencing another boom. Apple's new device, alongside iterative updates from other manufacturers, will be key drivers of the 2026 market growth. This suggests that the foldable phone market is poised to enter a new, more mature and vibrant stage.