WeChat Holds the Key: The Fate of iPhone 16 and Mate 70 Hangs in the Balance

WeChat Holds the Key: The Fate of iPhone 16 and Mate 70 Hangs in the BalanceRecently, WeChat has become a hot topic on social media, not for any new features, but for rumors that it might not support iPhone 16 and Mate 70. While smartphone manufacturers hold sway over app distribution, WeChat, as the national social media app, holds more bargaining power when facing them

WeChat Holds the Key: The Fate of iPhone 16 and Mate 70 Hangs in the Balance

Recently, WeChat has become a hot topic on social media, not for any new features, but for rumors that it might not support iPhone 16 and Mate 70. While smartphone manufacturers hold sway over app distribution, WeChat, as the national social media app, holds more bargaining power when facing them. If WeChat doesn't support a certain system, phones running on that system will be difficult for consumers to accept. Therefore, the sales of iPhone 16 and Mate 70 largely depend on whether WeChat adapts to them.

Pure-Blood HarmonyOS Arrives, WeChat Becomes a Crucial Link

As early as 2019, Huawei began laying the groundwork for HarmonyOS. However, five years later, the pure-blood version of HarmonyOS is still not available for public testing. This is not because Huawei lacks the technical prowess, but because the development of a self-developed operating system involves numerous interconnected interests. Only by gaining developer support and offering a rich software ecosystem to consumers can a new system develop steadily.

In the initial stages of its development, HarmonyOS mainly relied on compatibility with Android applications to meet user needs. As the number of existing users continues to grow, the influence of HarmonyOS has also gradually increased. As a result, Huawei has accelerated the development of native HarmonyOS applications since 2024. Early in 2024, Huawei officially announced that the number of HarmonyOS ecosystem devices had grown to 800 million, with HarmonyOS campus open courses reaching 135 universities, 305 university students participating in HarmonyOS activities, and over 380,000 developers certified by HarmonyOS. Based on this, the first batch of over 200 native HarmonyOS applications is being developed rapidly.

As of May 2024, Du Jinbiao, General Manager of HarmonyOS Ecosystem Service Company, revealed that the number of native HarmonyOS ecosystem applications has exceeded 4,000. This indicates that the development of native HarmonyOS applications is progressing at a rapid pace. It is thanks to this abundance of native HarmonyOS applications that HarmonyOS dares to break away from Android and develop independently. It is reported that the HarmonyOS Star River Edition is planned to be officially launched in the fourth quarter of 2024. This system will only support applications built on the HarmonyOS kernel and HarmonyOS system, and will no longer be compatible with Android applications.

Although the HarmonyOS ecosystem is thriving, it unfortunately does not yet have WeChat's support. This might be the primary reason for the delayed release of Mate 70. Digital blogger "Digital Chat Station" revealed that due to the slow progress of HarmonyOSNEXT and hardware adaptation, the release of Huawei's Mate 70 series phones will be pushed to the middle or late part of the fourth quarter (after November).

"Envy" of Mini Game Bonuses, Apple and WeChat's Conflict Intensifies

Unlike Huawei, which is eagerly awaiting WeChat's adaptation of its system, Apple is in conflict with Tencent, restricting WeChat updates. Currently, the iOS version of WeChat has not been updated for two months. The reason for the conflict between Apple and WeChat is mainly because Apple is "envious" of the massive revenue WeChat generates through mini programs. Survey data shows that in the first half of 2024, the market size of China's mini game industry reached 16.603 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.5%. Among them, WeChat mini games have over 500 million monthly active users, and their total revenue has increased by over 30% year-on-year.

In early August 2024, foreign media reported that Apple was pressuring Tencent and ByteDance to block loopholes in their products that guide users to consume through external payment systems, avoiding the 30% app store commission. Otherwise, they would restrict the updates of new versions of WeChat and Douyin. PChome found that the charging ratios of Android phones and iPhone apps are currently different. The iOS charging ratio of major platforms is basically 1:0.7, while the Android side can achieve 1:1. For iOS users, the 30% that disappears after charging is the "Apple tax."

It is worth noting that currently, WeChat and Douyin's mini game ecosystem charges the same price for game coins on iOS as on Android, which means that Apple cannot currently collect commissions from mini game charges. It is important to know that App Store commissions are a major source of income for Apple. Sensortower data shows that in 2023, Apple earned 160.8 billion yuan globally through the "Apple tax," of which the Chinese market contributed over 40 billion yuan.

In fact, over the past few years, app developers have been using various methods to guide users to bypass Apple and recharge directly on third-party platforms to avoid "paying taxes." Take Tencent games as an example. PChome found that aside from the common method of directly invoking AppleStore payment within the game, there are at least six other third-party recharge methods, such as the Super Nuclear Player recharge channel, where Tencent offers bigger discounts. Users can buy 450 points for 45 yuan for King of Glory through Super Nuclear Player, and get 38 points for free for the first five times. However, due to the infringement of Apple's interests, these third-party recharge channels may be taken down by the platform.

The current standoff between WeChat and Apple in the mini game field stems from their different understandings of mini games. For WeChat, mini games are nurtured by them, and Apple has not contributed much, yet they want to take a 30% commission, which is obviously unacceptable. For Apple, mini game charges are undoubtedly "in-app purchases" of a "unlocking props" nature, and not collecting commissions violates platform regulations.

WeChat Is Confident, Apple and Huawei Have No Choice but to Compromise

Currently, Huawei, Apple, and WeChat are all entangled, and both smartphone manufacturers will release new smartphone products soon. Therefore, WeChat's stance will influence the market performance of Huawei and Apple's new phones.

Considering the importance of WeChat, it directly determines whether the pure-blood HarmonyOS can gain traction in the market. Currently, Huawei is making significant concessions to Tencent. In June 2024, Lanjing TMT reported that Huawei and Tencent were about to reach an agreement to exclude WeChat from revenue sharing, allowing WeChat to run on its HarmonyOS without collecting in-app revenue sharing. No commission is undoubtedly a huge attraction for Tencent. Survey data shows that the market share of HarmonyOS in China reached 17.2% in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 66.7%, surpassing iOS and ranking second only to Android. With only limited development costs, Tencent can reap the benefits of an ecosystem comparable to iOS, so why not? From this perspective, Tencent is likely working hard to develop native HarmonyOS-adapted products. As critical Tencent apps like WeChat and QQ gradually land on the HarmonyOS ecosystem, Huawei may release the Mate 70 series phones equipped with pure-blood HarmonyOS.

In stark contrast to the smooth communication between Apple and Tencent, Apple and WeChat are currently at loggerheads over the mini game issue. PChome believes that Apple may compromise with WeChat next. This is not only because mini programs are inherently part of WeChat's internal ecosystem, which Apple can't easily touch, but also because Apple has been on the losing side in its clashes with WeChat.

In early 2017, Apple and WeChat clashed over whether they should collect commissions from tipping. Apple believed that the tipping function was a "virtual payment," and virtual payments in iOS phone apps must go through the in-app purchase channel, with Apple taking a 30% cut. However, WeChat argued that it did not profit from the tipping function, and all tipping money was given to content creators. The tipping function was only to increase user activity, so neither Apple nor WeChat should collect commissions.

Due to the stalemate, WeChat unilaterally closed the tipping function on the iOS version of WeChat's public platform in April 2017. It wasn't until a year later that Tencent and Apple reached a settlement on in-app tipping functions. Public account tipping was upgraded to "like the author," no longer supporting tipping directly to public accounts. WeChat tipping will directly go into the liking account's WeChat wallet. In this process, Apple will no longer collect a 30% platform fee.

Given that WeChat is a national social media app, iPhone users wouldn't abandon WeChat for the iOS system, so Apple can't force WeChat to compromise by taking it off the shelves. On the other hand, mini programs are an ecosystem nurtured by WeChat, and Apple has no moral grounds to arbitrarily take a 30% commission. Therefore, if Apple wants to continue to compete with Huawei in the future, the wisest course of action is to compromise with WeChat and win the support of the Tencent ecosystem.

In fact, Apple already has signs of "compromising." On September 6, 2024, Bloomberg reported that Apple had approved Tencent's WeChat update submitted this week, buying more time for negotiations between the two sides.

In conclusion, WeChat's influence comes from its deep integration into users' daily lives and its wide coverage of services. For