The development of a second manufacturer's tri-fold phone has been paused: Folding screen market growth slows, with large horizontal and small vertical folds to dominate in 2025

The development of a second manufacturer's tri-fold phone has been paused: Folding screen market growth slows, with large horizontal and small vertical folds to dominate in 2025Recently, a digital blogger (@DigitalChatStation) revealed that the development of a second manufacturer's tri-fold phone has been paused. This signifies a significant slowdown in the growth of China's foldable phone market after several years of rapid expansion

The development of a second manufacturer's tri-fold phone has been paused: Folding screen market growth slows, with large horizontal and small vertical folds to dominate in 2025

Recently, a digital blogger (@DigitalChatStation) revealed that the development of a second manufacturer's tri-fold phone has been paused. This signifies a significant slowdown in the growth of China's foldable phone market after several years of rapid expansion. The blogger also pointed out that in 2025, the foldable phone market will primarily focus on large horizontal and small vertical folding models. Manufacturers will concentrate their resources on creating one all-around flagship foldable phone, rather than launching multiple models of different types as in previous years.

This prediction aligns with forecasts from several market research firms. Counterpoint Research's December report predicted that China's foldable phone shipments would reach 9.1 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of only 2%. This starkly contrasts with the triple-digit growth rates of previous years, indicating that the Chinese foldable phone market has entered a period of decelerated growth. Canalys also reported that global foldable phone shipments are expected to grow by only 13% year-on-year in 2024, and may even decline in 2025.

Several factors contribute to the slowdown in the foldable phone market's growth. While the emergence of foldable phones initially generated significant market interest, issues such as product value proposition, durability, and consumer acceptance and purchase intent remain key obstacles to further expansion. The high price point is another significant barrier, with most foldable phones costing considerably more than comparable conventional smartphones, deterring many potential buyers.

Furthermore, technological bottlenecks pose a considerable challenge. Current limitations in screen and hinge technology, including issues like screen creases and hinge damage, affect user experience and consumer confidence.

Despite the slowdown, the foldable phone market is not without hope. Market research firms are generally optimistic about a rebound in 2026, driven by the entry of new players, the application of generative AI technology, and clearer product positioning. Technological breakthroughs, more appealing designs, and more competitive pricing could all contribute to renewed growth in 2026.

Currently, only a handful of tri-fold phones are available on the market, with Huawei's Mate X series being the most prominent example. Other manufacturers, such as Honor and Samsung, have hinted at or planned tri-fold phones, but the exact release dates and product specifications remain unknown.

Honor CEO Zhao Ming, after the recent launch of the Honor Magic7 RS Porsche Design, responded to questions about Honor's tri-fold phone timeline with "Please wait and see," suggesting active development but an uncertain release date.

Ross Young, CEO of display supply chain consultancy DSCC, expects Samsung's tri-fold phone to launch in early 2026. This indicates that even industry giants like Samsung are adopting a cautious approach to tri-fold phone development and market entry.

In summary, the foldable phone market is transitioning from rapid growth to steady development. Although growth will slow in 2024 and 2025, the market still holds significant potential with technological advancements and maturing consumer demand. 2026 could bring new growth opportunities with new technologies and products, potentially attracting more manufacturers to the tri-fold market. Future development will focus on enhancing product value, addressing durability concerns, and offering more competitive pricing to meet growing consumer needs. Only then can foldable phones truly reach a mass market and achieve sustainable growth. For manufacturers, a cautious market strategy and precise product positioning will be key to winning market competition.

The current market trend favors large horizontal and small vertical folds, better aligning with consumer usage habits and needs. Manufacturers should prioritize user experience and practical applications in product development, avoiding the pursuit of technological innovation at the expense of user needs.

Addressing technological bottlenecks, such as screen durability and hinge reliability, requires increased investment in materials science and precision manufacturing to improve product quality and reliability. This will build consumer confidence and drive market growth. Consumers, too, should approach the foldable phone market rationally, choosing based on their actual needs rather than blindly following trends.

In conclusion, the foldable phone market is undergoing a crucial transformation. Future success hinges on manufacturers' technological innovation, market insight, and understanding of consumer needs. Adapting to market changes and continuously improving product competitiveness will be essential for success in this challenging yet promising market.