Will the Triple-Folding Phone Market Face a Cold Winter After the Huawei Mate X3?

Will the Triple-Folding Phone Market Face a Cold Winter After the Huawei Mate X3?The launch of the Huawei Mate X3, particularly its "Master Edition," initially sparked significant market enthusiasm for triple-folding phones, with many consumers eagerly anticipating similar products from other manufacturers. However, recent industry news has poured cold water on this excitement

Will the Triple-Folding Phone Market Face a Cold Winter After the Huawei Mate X3?

The launch of the Huawei Mate X3, particularly its "Master Edition," initially sparked significant market enthusiasm for triple-folding phones, with many consumers eagerly anticipating similar products from other manufacturers. However, recent industry news has poured cold water on this excitement. The prominent Chinese tech blogger "Digital Chat Station" revealed that the second domestic manufacturer developing a triple-folding phone has suspended its project. This suggests that, in the short term, the triple-folding phone market might be dominated solely by Huawei, with other manufacturers adopting a wait-and-see approach.

This phenomenon isn't coincidental; it reflects broader market trends. The domestic foldable phone market is approaching saturation, with sluggish growth in new sales. Counterpoint Research predicts that shipments of foldable phones in China will reach 9.1 million units in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of only about 2%. This starkly contrasts with the rapid growth seen in previous years, signaling a relatively stagnant, even slightly depressed, market phase.

The high price of foldable phones is a key factor limiting market growth. The complex folding structure design and high screen manufacturing costs result in exorbitant prices, far exceeding those of conventional smartphones. The Huawei Mate X3 Master Edition, for example, starts at a whopping 20,000 yuan (~$2,700 USD), a significant investment for most consumers. Even repair costs are staggering; a new screen replacement is priced at 7,999 yuan (~$1,100 USD), further increasing the risk and cost associated with owning a foldable phone.

While a high-price strategy yields higher profit margins, it restricts the accessibility of foldable phones to a broader consumer base. Currently, foldable phones remain luxury items in the high-end market, primarily targeting consumers with a high demand for advanced technology and premium experiences, and the financial means to afford them. Ordinary consumers are more likely to opt for more affordable and feature-rich conventional smartphones. This difference in consumer habits directly affects the market size of foldable phones.

Furthermore, the technical complexity of triple-folding phones increases the R&D difficulty and costs for manufacturers. Compared to dual-folding phones, triple-folding phones present more significant technological challenges, including increased screen folding cycles, hinge reliability, and software compatibility. These technological hurdles not only raise R&D costs but also increase product risks. Quality issues could severely damage a manufacturer's brand image and even impact its future development.

Therefore, in the current market environment, temporarily shelving triple-folding phone R&D projects is a rational decision for many manufacturers. Instead of investing heavily in a product with an uncertain market outlook, it's more prudent to allocate resources to other product lines with stronger market competitiveness, such as more cost-effective foldable phones or other innovative products.

It's worth noting that while the triple-folding phone market faces challenges, the foldable phone market as a whole still holds immense potential. As technology advances and costs gradually decrease, the prices of foldable phones are expected to become more affordable, attracting a wider range of consumers. In the future, foldable phones might follow a similar path to smartphones, transitioning from the high-end to the mass market, becoming an indispensable part of daily life. However, manufacturers need to continuously innovate, improve technology, and reduce costs to secure a foothold in this fiercely competitive market.

Currently, Huawei seems to be the only manufacturer maintaining an optimistic outlook on the triple-folding phone market. The launch of the Huawei Mate X3 demonstrates Huawei's strength and determination in foldable screen technology. Even for Huawei, however, the challenges of slowing market growth and high costs remain. Whether Huawei can maintain its lead in the triple-folding phone market through its technological advantages and brand influence remains to be seen.

In conclusion, the triple-folding phone market is at a critical juncture. Market saturation, high prices, and technical difficulties all constrain market development. In the future, only those manufacturers who can effectively address these challenges and continuously innovate will succeed in this competitive market. For consumers, patiently waiting for more affordable and technologically mature foldable phones might be a wiser choice. The wait-and-see attitude of other manufacturers suggests a bleak short-term outlook for the triple-folding phone market; whether it can overcome these hurdles remains to be seen.