Is Bitcoin's fate tied to the US election? Analysts predict Trump win would push prices higher, Harris win could send it below $50,000

Is Bitcoin's fate tied to the US election? Analysts predict Trump win would push prices higher, Harris win could send it below $50,000With the November election day approaching, Bitcoin is getting closer to breaking out of its narrow trading range this year, according to Bernstein analysts. The flagship cryptocurrency has traded between $55,000 and $70,000 for most of the year after hitting an all-time high in March and is likely to remain in this range until the US decides its next president on Nov

Is Bitcoin's fate tied to the US election? Analysts predict Trump win would push prices higher, Harris win could send it below $50,000

With the November election day approaching, Bitcoin is getting closer to breaking out of its narrow trading range this year, according to Bernstein analysts. The flagship cryptocurrency has traded between $55,000 and $70,000 for most of the year after hitting an all-time high in March and is likely to remain in this range until the US decides its next president on Nov. 5.

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani believes that the outcome of the election be it a win for former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris could have a major impact on the price of Bitcoin. He points out that "we expect the difference between the two political outcomes to be significant."

In a note on Monday, Chhugani said, "If Trump wins, we expect Bitcoin to once again hit all-time highs and reach the range of around $80,000 to $90,000 in the fourth quarter. However, if Harris wins, we expect Bitcoin to break below its current $50,000 bottom and test the $30,000 to $40,000 range, which was the price range when the Bitcoin ETF momentum kicked off in Q4 2023."

Standard Chartered went even further, predicting Bitcoin could rise to $150,000 if Trump wins.

Trump has made significant overtures to the crypto industry this summer. Positioning himself as a pro-crypto candidate, he was the keynote speaker at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville earlier this year and said he would fire Securities and Exchange Commission chair Gary Gensler if elected.

In contrast, Harris has not publicly expressed her views on cryptocurrencies. Many industry participants were disappointed that her campaigns recently shared policy positions made no mention of Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies.

"A pro-crypto election outcome and a positive regulatory environment hasn't been priced into the market yet," Chhugani said. "Today's crypto market is a story of survival in the toughest macroeconomic and regulatory environment. The fact that Bitcoin has climbed 112% in the past 12 months testifies to the fundamental resilience of decentralized digital assets and the recent success of ETFs."

"A positive regulatory environment would remove policy risks for financial institutions and banks to participate, thereby eliminating the competitive barriers for digital assets versus traditional assets in terms of institutional fund inflows," he added. "After the regulatory cleansing of the past three years, a positive crypto regulatory policy could re-ignite innovation and bring users back to financial products on blockchains."

Democratic lawmakers are generally considered less crypto-friendly, primarily due to the outspoken opposition of Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Gensler's past legal battles with the crypto community. Republicans have been more supportive.

However, the situation is rapidly changing. TDCowen recently pointed out that a Harris administration might be less hostile to crypto than the current administration of President Joe Biden, although the gap is harder to assess compared to a potential second term for Trump.

While there is no concrete evidence to suggest that either candidate would take a harder or softer stance on crypto regulation, analysts believe that the election outcome could significantly impact market sentiment, thus influencing Bitcoin's price trajectory.

It's crucial for investors to keep a close eye on the election results and their implications for the crypto industry. Whether the outcome is positive or negative, it will present new opportunities and challenges for the crypto space.

Here are the key takeaways from the article:

• Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani predicted that Bitcoin would rise to between $80,000 and $90,000 if Trump wins, while it would fall to between $30,000 and $40,000 if Harris wins.

• Standard Chartered predicted that Bitcoin could rise to $150,000 if Trump wins.

• Trump has made it clear that he supports cryptocurrencies, while Harris has not publicly commented on crypto.

• Analysts believe that a pro-crypto election outcome and a positive regulatory environment have not yet been priced into the market.

• While Democratic lawmakers are generally considered less crypto-friendly, the situation is rapidly changing.

It is important to note that these are just predictions made by analysts based on current market conditions and historical data. They are not investment advice. Investors should conduct independent research and evaluation before making any investment decisions and consult with a professional financial advisor.