iPhone 16 is unlikely to see a supercycle: Macroeconomic factors, design, AI feature release, and other concerns hold back sales

iPhone 16 is unlikely to see a supercycle: Macroeconomic factors, design, AI feature release, and other concerns hold back salesDespite Apple unveiling four new iPhone 16 models this week at its Its Glowtime event, featuring a bevy of impressive upgrades including cloud and on-device generated AI features, there are signs that this might not be enough for the iPhone 16 series to experience a supercycle. Mark Gurman, in his latest PowerOn newsletter, points out that despite Apple reportedly raising production for the 2024 iPhone 16 to 90 million units, a 10% increase from the iPhone 15, the flagship series is unlikely to see a supercycle

iPhone 16 is unlikely to see a supercycle: Macroeconomic factors, design, AI feature release, and other concerns hold back sales

Despite Apple unveiling four new iPhone 16 models this week at its Its Glowtime event, featuring a bevy of impressive upgrades including cloud and on-device generated AI features, there are signs that this might not be enough for the iPhone 16 series to experience a supercycle. Mark Gurman, in his latest PowerOn newsletter, points out that despite Apple reportedly raising production for the 2024 iPhone 16 to 90 million units, a 10% increase from the iPhone 15, the flagship series is unlikely to see a supercycle.

Macroeconomic headwinds impact buying sentiment

Gurman notes that consumers in China and other parts of the world are still holding onto their wallets tightly. While AI technology has significant market impact, consumers remain cautious about spending on smartphones.

Lack of appealing design changes

In addition to macroeconomic factors, the iPhone 16 models themselves might be a deterrent to a supercycle. All the upcoming models are reported to have almost identical designs to their predecessors, which could be unappealing to consumers who want to see a fresh design.

AI features release and performance

While AppleIntelligence features are considered a key driver for iPhone 16 sales, these features are expected to be released later with iOS 18.1. Moreover, some analysts believe that Apple needs more time to push AI development, and current AI features might not meet consumer expectations.

Other upgrades aren't enough to drive a "supercycle"

While the iPhone 16 will see a RAM upgrade from 8GB to 12GB, and all four models will feature LTPO OLED technology, meaning even the base model will have ProMotion technology and a higher refresh rate, these upgrades might not be enough to trigger consumer enthusiasm for an upgrade to the iPhone 16.

Consumers are more concerned about price and thermal solutions

A survey reveals that the main factors driving consumers to upgrade to the iPhone 16 are price and thermal solutions. This indicates that consumers are more concerned about practical features and value for money, rather than potential future trends like AI.

Hope lies with the iPhone 17

Despite the lack of optimism for a "supercycle" for the iPhone 16 series, Gurman puts his hopes on the iPhone 17 series launching next year. This might mean that Apple will bring more significant design updates and more powerful AI features to the iPhone 17 series to entice consumer upgrades.

In conclusion, the "supercycle" for the iPhone 16 series is hindered by a multitude of factors, including the macroeconomic environment, design, the release timing of AI features, and consumer focus on price and thermal solutions. Despite this, Apple continues to explore the field of AI, and future iPhone series might see greater breakthroughs in AI features, ultimately leading to a true "supercycle."