Liang Jianzhang: Innovation has a profound impact on international competitiveness, and population is the foundation of innovation power

On May 26th, at the press conference of the new book "Population Strategy: How Population Affects the Economy and Innovation" (hereinafter referred to as "Population Strategy"), Liang Jianzhang, co-founder and chairman of the board of directors of Ctrip Group and population economist, stated that, In 2007, when I was studying at Stanford, I started researching the impact of innovation and entrepreneurship in Silicon Valley. I found that innovation deeply affects a country's economic development and international competitiveness, and population is the fundamental factor in innovationLiang Jianzhang introduced that he began to be exposed to this research field in 2007

On May 26th, at the press conference of the new book "Population Strategy: How Population Affects the Economy and Innovation" (hereinafter referred to as "Population Strategy"), Liang Jianzhang, co-founder and chairman of the board of directors of Ctrip Group and population economist, stated that, In 2007, when I was studying at Stanford, I started researching the impact of innovation and entrepreneurship in Silicon Valley. I found that innovation deeply affects a country's economic development and international competitiveness, and population is the fundamental factor in innovation

Liang Jianzhang introduced that he began to be exposed to this research field in 2007. In 2011, he began to conduct in-depth research on the relationship between population and innovation and the economy while teaching at Peking University. Since 2012, he and other scholars have jointly published works and hundreds of articles such as "Are there too many Chinese people?", "Population Innovation Power", "The Chinese Dream Calls for Chinese Children", guiding the discussion of population policy into the public domain and continuously promoting the development of population policy. In 2021, the "Yuwa Population Research Think Tank" was established jointly with many demographers and economists. The core goal of the publication of the new book "Population Strategy" is to make more people aware of the importance of population for innovation and comprehensive national strength, and to provide comprehensive recommendations for encouraging fertility policies.

Liang Jianzhang believes that the rise of China and the reversal of population growth are the two biggest and closely related events in human society in the 21st century, and the decrease in young people caused by low fertility rates will seriously affect China's future development.

He mentioned that the world's population has been steadily increasing throughout history, but in the 21st century, the global fertility rate, including developed countries and low and middle-income countries, has sharply declined. Among them, China is the country with the most serious problems of fewer children and population shrinkage in the future. In 2022, China's fertility rate of less than 1.1 is far lower than the level of 1.6 in developed countries, and even lower than that of Japan. Even more severe is that in the next 20 years, we will still face a situation of sustained negative population growth and rapid aging.

Liang Jianzhang pioneered the concept of the "population innovation power" model in his research: innovation power=population size * population capacity * (internal communication volume+external communication volume), and analyzed it around scale effects, aging effects, aggregation effects, and mobility effects. Through this model, this paper expounds the influence of population on national competitiveness, economy and other factors, and analyzes the future competitive development of China and the United States in the field of science and technology from the perspective of human resources, as well as the current population situation in China and the future population trend of China that is not optimistic.

When discussing how to face the situation of low fertility in China, Liang Jianzhang combined the current situation and future trends of major economies such as Japan, Europe, the United States, and India to provide ten policy recommendations for China to address the current population problem from the dimensions of encouraging childbirth, reducing costs for childbirth, and education reform.

In his suggestions, Liang Jianzhang listed policy suggestions such as cash subsidies, tax subsidies, housing subsidies, equal maternity leave for men and women, promoting flexible office work, shortening the school system and eliminating the weakening of the high school entrance examination, strengthening personnel exchange and opening up policies, and increasing the construction of daycare centers.

Liang Jianzhang summarized that if we want to change the very worrying situation of China's economy, society, and innovation in the next 20 years, we must take action now to tilt more social resources towards families with children and reverse our low fertility rate.

He mentioned that in the face of the challenge of aging issues, compared to the aging of other countries and regions in the world, China's aging can be called a "super aging" with super large scale, super fast speed, super early stage, and super stable structure. Aging itself is not a problem, not adaptation is the problem. The system of modern society is matched with that of young society. Infrastructure, social security, and service system.

There are two main reasons for the aging population: firstly, the decrease in fertility rate, which leads to a decrease in the number and proportion of children and adolescents (known as "fewer children"). Secondly, the lifespan of the elderly population has been extended, leading to an increase in the number and proportion of the elderly population. The prolonged lifespan of the elderly population is a result of advances in medical technology and improved living standards, so the aging caused by the prolonged lifespan is a manifestation of social progress. The real crisis lies in the decrease in fertility rate, which has led to the reduction of children. Long term persistent oligopolization is the collapse of the economy and the extinction of the entire nation.

Liang Jianzhang and other scholars believe that the impact of the birth rate collapse on the Chinese economy will take almost 20 years to fully manifest, and the country must make a difference. Some countries in Europe that have been successful in encouraging childbirth will allocate an average of 2-3% of their GDP to encourage childbirth. The current situation in China is more serious and requires greater investment. (One Orange)